TNI must prove its impartiality: Ikrar
What is important these days is that the Indonesian Military (TNI) maintain its impartiality, says Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of the Jakarta-based Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) who is part of a LIPI team researching the TNI. The following are excerpts of an interview he gave to The Jakarta Post:
Question: A plenary session of the House of Representatives is scheduled for Wednesday while the President issued his "executive order" on Monday. How do you see this?
Answer: The order is ... already within the job description of Coordinating Minister for Political, Social and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But psychologically the President is warning (Vice President) Megawati Soekarnoputri that if she does not accept the (earlier offered) "constitutional delegation of power" it's not inconceivable that he will declare a state of emergency -- which is blackmail also against the TNI which has voiced resistance to such a declaration.
This places the TNI in a very difficult position; witness the "Democratic Declaration" issued by activists rejecting the possibility of the TNI reentering practical politics.
Could they do that?
There has been political pressure (to enable this) through the issuance of the executive order and pressure from the masses (of President Abdurrahman Wahid's supporters) to impose a compromise. Defense minister Mahfud MD said, "we'll see what the agenda of the special session is," meaning the unwanted may happen if the session moves towards demanding accountability from the President and his possible impeachment.
The President wants to return to the previous situation in which it was possible to reshuffle the cabinet so as to make everyone happy -- but it's too late for that now.
If Megawati accepted the power-sharing offer it would be an anticlimax after what's happened over the past year; political parties would also be subject to scrutiny if they bowed to offers of cabinet positions or if they were seen to buckle under pressure from Gus Dur (Abdurrahman) if the special session fails to go through.
We're told the country could break up if there was a special session.
If Gus Dur's supporters assert that East Java will declare independence, which part do they mean? Many in the province are still supporters of (Megawati's) Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and Golkar.
The executive order is part of the psywar (being waged by Gus Dur) on Megawati. There will be prolonged uncertainty if the special session does not take place ... (the offer of) power- sharing was made before and there is no guarantee (that it will not be violated again) ... Last year, Gus Dur agreed to form a "rainbow cabinet" but that only lasted for one or two months. So all such deals are taken to be part of Gus Dur's wily ways ...
If Gus Dur's supporters turn out to be at least counterbalanced by anti-Gus Dur supporters, then anarchy could be avoided. The burning of Muhammadiyah schools (allegedly by Gus Dur supporters) is more of a crime than what the Indonesian Communist Party did; they never targeted schools.
Yet there must be a few influential people siding with Gus Dur.
It's indeed surprising, if it's true, that the idea of constitutional power-sharing came from Marzuki Darusman, not the team of seven ministers. Marzuki is a member of the Golkar board. Is he afraid of being fired and trying to save his position? He's also a member of another team (advising the President) with (trade minister) Luhut Panjaitan and the minister of mining Purnomo Yusgiantoro.
It's surprising because the Cabinet generally seems to consist of more rational members. The political stance of the team of seven is clear, they will support the President as his assistants, but they maintain that the declaration of a state of emergency is not among their recommendations.
What about the TNI?
Their main concern is the recovery of their image ...
The situation now depends on their stance, on how they interpret the executive order. Whatever happens they must be responsible for maintaining security by being impartial ...
As Rudini (a retired officer) said, it's not impossible for the TNI to take power again -- and we'll remain in this vicious circle.
The TNI will restrain itself up to the last minute when the police can no longer handle security. I'm sure it doesn't have a contingency plan yet to take power ... though it's not impossible that some of their members are ... involved in violence. (Units such as) the special forces and strategic reserves command prioritize TNI politics (defending the unitary republic, etc.) over Gus Dur's. And they need a good image ...
What if Gus Dur still persists and declares a state of emergency?
This is Gus Dur's gamble. The international community, particularly the developing countries participating in the G15 talks (hosted by the government), is focusing on Jakarta. If Gus Dur takes a fatal political step and declares a state of emergency, this would be frightening for the diplomats and high- ranking officials among the guests.
Indonesia's image would further deteriorate among investors and donors, as well as other developing countries, as the government will be considered highly irresponsible for risking its guests' safety by imposing a state of emergency.
Defense minister Mahfud said the executive order was not a delegation of power; but could it become one, similar to the one former president Soeharto claimed to have received?
This depends on whether the civilian politicians, and Gus Dur and his supporters remain intent on destroying the country, which would open an opportunity for the TNI to reenter (politics) ... or whether the PKB (Gus Dur's National Awakening Party) can be given another chance in the next elections. Meanwhile, the image of Nahdlatul Ulama (Indonesia's largest Muslim organization which was previously headed by Gus Dur) is declining fast ... while modernists Muslims are beginning to be able to work together with nationalists and secular (politicians) such as with the PDI Perjuangan ...
But no matter who governs they would still face the problem of demands for TNI reform and accountability, including the trial of human rights violations.
In the meantime, there's no other way than to compromise with the TNI, although there should be no political concessions made. This means the TNI must be made to recognize the difference between its actions conducted in the name of an authoritarian regime, such as in Aceh and Irian Jaya (military operation areas), and those which were not ... Actions (such as rape) should be brought to court.
But it is urgent to have an agreement between civilians and the TNI on what the TNI is going to become. If it's expected to be professional, there should be mutual respect for the respective autonomy of civilians and the military in civil- military relations ...
The military should not be given any leeway to dabble in politics ... there should not be any interference with their affairs, such as the selection of a chief of staff.
Their recent statements still reveal their political outlook and their holding up of the TNI as being more rational than civilian politicians, that they're more capable of making judgments about what is an emergency situation and what is not; that they're more democratic in disagreeing with the dissolution of the legislature ... They must not be given such opportunities; otherwise we'll never have a respectable military ... (anr)