TINA and TIARA Emerge Amid Iran War: Which to Choose?
The ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran in early April has driven a shift in investor capital flows in the global financial markets.
Prospects of peace, expectations of solid US corporate earnings growth, and the resilience of the US economy against energy price shocks have made Wall Street the primary target for investment managers once again.
Return of the TINA Strategy in Equities Markets
Over the past year, market participants had shifted their portfolios to exchanges outside the United States in search of cheaper valuations, in line with the trend of dollar weakening following the trade war and the Iran war.
This diversification strategy, known as TIARA (There Is A Real Alternative), had previously benefited stock exchanges in Europe and the Asian region.
However, President Donald Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire on 7 April triggered the return of the TINA (There Is No Alternative) strategy, with investors refocusing on US equities.
According to data from LSEG/Lipper, investors have recorded net capital inflows of US$28 billion into US stocks since the night before the ceasefire announcement.
Of that total, domestic US investors contributed the majority portion of around US$23 billion. This transition marks a drastic reversal, given that US stock markets had previously experienced net outflows of up to US$56 billion in the period before the peace agreement was reached.
Fundamental Resilience and Corporate Earnings
The rapid recovery of the US exchange is also supported by more stable economic fundamentals. The S&P 500 index has recovered all the corrections that occurred due to the conflict and is now 2% above pre-war announcement levels.
This resilience is further supported by the US’s status as a net energy exporter, which provides stronger cushioning against commodity price fluctuations compared to regions like Europe or Japan. On the other hand, the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provides additional positive sentiment for global logistics.
Several major investment banks have begun revising US equity ratings from “neutral” to “overweight”. This step is taken considering projections of resilient corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector.
Referring to data from LSEG/IBES, first-quarter earnings growth for issuers in the S&P 500 index is estimated to reach nearly 14%. This figure is far above earnings growth projections in the European market, which are only estimated at 4.2%.
Fund Withdrawals from European and Asian Exchanges
Amid the renewed interest in the US market, exchanges in Europe and Asia have recorded significant capital outflows. Citing data from EPFR via a Bank of America report, equity mutual funds in South Korea recorded a record withdrawal of US$2.5 billion in the week ending mid-April 2026.
Meanwhile, European equities experienced outflows of US$4.7 billion, the largest outflow figure since November 2024.
Although cumulatively for the year to date, US stocks still record a net outflow position of US$30 billion, that value has declined sharply compared to the mid-March position.
The strength of market confidence is reflected in the S&P 500 index’s pace, which has successfully broken through the record level of 7,000, recording a gain of more than 10% in just 11 trading days. This confirms the dominant position of the US stock market amid revisions to global economic growth projections.