Time for South Korea leader-elect to face realities

Time for South Korea leader-elect to face realities

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore

South Korea's president-elect is a lawyer.

Now he will need to learn to be a juggler if he is to deliver on a pledge to engage heavily armed North Korea while nurturing an alliance with a United States holding a hard line towards the reclusive communist state and its nuclear ambitions.

The razor-thin victory of Roh Moo-hyun, 56, was not just an endorsement of his agenda of reconciliation with the North but a vote against the old, the corrupt and the past -- with the United States seen by the huge pool of young voters as a large part of that mix.

Now, analysts say, it is time for Roh to put election rhetoric behind him and to face the real business of running a country that lies within striking distance of 11,000 missiles trained by Pyongyang on his capital.

"His first obligation is to try to get his personal relationship with Washington on track by taking off his candidate hat and putting on a leader hat," said Ralph Cossa, head of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank.

In his first public remarks after claiming victory, Roh recognized the importance of friendship with the United States, but hinted that change in the partnership is afoot with a demand for the alliance to mature.

That may not hold much sway in Washington, which is well aware that -- for now at least -- its 37,000 troops in South Korean bases are crucial should Pyongyang try an adventure across the border, the most heavily fortified front line on earth.

"Roh has to acknowledge that the current tensions with North Korea aren't between North Korea and the United States with the South as an innocent bystander, but acknowledge that North Korean actions are a threat to South Korea as well," Cossa said.

The onus is not all on Roh. The United States too has a role to play.

"Washington must do a better job in explaining its objectives and in reaching out to President-elect Roh and those who are not convinced that Korea's future is inextricably linked to continued close security cooperation with Washington," said Cossa.

"My hope is for a quick summit to iron out things," said Lee Jung-hoon, professor of politics at Seoul's Yonsei University. "Especially in light of the nuclear challenge from North Korea there needs to be a bit of give and take."

In his campaign, Roh, the son of chicken and peach farmers, prided himself on the fact that, unlike the South Korean elite, he has never visited the United States. One challenge for Washington will be to help Roh cast aside that election-style rhetoric and make friends.

The United States must also find a way to change a popular South Korean perception that it takes Seoul's friendship for granted and must turn back the tide of anti-American sentiment that may have been the wave that swept Roh to victory.

"If the Bush administration is worried, it should be," wrote Korea expert Aidan Foster-Carter in the Financial Times. "Today, this sense of grudge is unhelpful, even perilous," he added. "It is to be hoped office will distance Roh Moo-hyun further from these roots. If not we are in for interesting times."

For example, U.S. President George W. Bush did not phone incumbent President Kim Dae-jung to apologize for the deaths of two teenagers under the wheels of a U.S. armored vehicle until a month after the two soldiers were acquitted in a court martial.

"This was extremely late in the day," said Korea expert James Cotton of the Australian National Defense Academy. "That kind of gesture is needed."

The United States was swift to offer Roh its congratulations. Analysts say that was a good start.

Yonsei University's Lee quoted a Korean proverb. "You have to do up the first button correctly and only then can you fasten the rest."

Button number two could be to move the Yongsan U.S. military administrative base in Seoul from a block of prime central property to a less prominent site. "This is a physical embodiment of the United States and it would be diplomatically wise to speed up (a move)," said Cotton.

Roh needs not only a policy to deal with his closest ally, the United States, but must test the "sunshine policy" of outgoing President Kim Dae-jung that has made scant progress since its birth five years ago in changing relations with the North.

"He has to make some firm demands for North Korea to act to honor its previous commitments," said Cossa. "This is a sunshine policy but there has to be light in both directions if they (North Korea) want it to continue."

For many in South Korea, Pyongyang's astonishing October acknowledgment that it was developing materials for nuclear weapons was just more of the same, an issue possibly of international concern but the kind of threat to which South Koreans have grown immune.

It is an immunity that Washington, caught up with its preparations for possible war with Iraq, discounts at its peril.

Pyongyang has acknowledged having weapons of mass destruction of which Iraqi President Saddam Hussein can still only dream. "Bilateral nuclear negotiations and dialogue between North Korea and the United States for the past nine years have led Koreans, particularly younger ones, to take it for granted that the nuclear problem would be taken good care of by the U.S.," said retired South Korean diplomat and commentator Lew Chiho.

Indeed, it should be a sobering experience for Bush to watch two leaders of democratic allies -- Germany's Gerhard Schroeder and now South Korea's Roh -- campaign and win elections on an anti-U.S. ticket. And that just as Washington needs all the friends it can find to deal with Iraq.

Anti-American sentiment is hardly unique to South Korea, but not all countries where anti-U.S. feelings run high share a border with an unpredictable communist state with nuclear ambitions and a million-man army.

"This gives him (Roh) a hand to play," said Cotton of the emotions running high in South Korea. "If the U.S. wants to play together they must address that requirement."

At home, voices of caution were quick to speak up. "We are seeing the rapid development of a crisis situation on the Korean Peninsula with the North's development of its nuclear potential," said the conservative Chosun Ilbo in an editorial on Roh's victory.

"Roh needs to quickly recognize the situation for what it is, and work with the government on a response that includes international unity in dealing with the problem," it said.