Three Months into US-Iran Conflict, Is Trump Officially Losing?
Three months after US President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran, a major question has emerged: is Washington actually heading for strategic defeat?
Despite the US winning many military engagements, analysts argue Trump has failed to translate tactical gains into geopolitical victory. Iran continues to maintain regional influence, refuses nuclear concessions, and demonstrates strength through control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
Former US Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller said the conflict, initially designed as a quick win, has turned into a long-term burden for Trump.
“We’re three months in, and it seems the war designed as a short-term victory for Trump has become a long-term strategic failure,” he told Reuters on Monday (25 May 2026).
The White House denied the claims. Spokesperson Olivia Wales stated US military operations had met their targets and Trump retained all options.
However, the prolonged conflict is increasingly pressuring Trump domestically. Energy price surges from the Strait of Hormuz blockade have sparked political pressure ahead of November’s midterm elections, while Trump’s popularity is waning.
Meanwhile, the war’s primary objective — halting Iran’s nuclear programme — remains unmet. Iran is believed to still possess high-enriched uranium stockpiles and insists on maintaining its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
Former US Middle East intelligence official Jonathan Panikoff said Iran feels it has succeeded in withstanding US pressure.
“What they’ve found is they can leverage that influence with minimal consequences for themselves,” Panikoff said.
Analysts also warn the conflict could push Iran to accelerate nuclear weapons ambitions for protection, similar to North Korea.
Senior Brookings Institution researcher Robert Kagan assessed the Iran conflict could be a major setback for US global standing.
“There will be no return to the previous status quo, no final American victory that can reverse or overcome the damage already done,” Kagan wrote.