This Wealthy Nation is at Risk of Collapse Due to Its Messy Economic Data

The declining participation of the public and government interference in US government surveys are raising serious concerns about the quality of economic data. In the United States, response rates to surveys such as the Current Population Survey and the Consumer Expenditure Survey have continuously fallen over the past decade. These data form the primary foundation for business decision-making, investments, and public policy. When the quality of official statistics weakens, economic performance can be genuinely shaken.

Participation in Surveys Drops, Data Quality Threatened

In recent years, more and more people have been reluctant to participate in government surveys. When the number of respondents decreases, the accuracy of the data erodes accordingly. As a result, businesses and investors face greater uncertainty in making decisions.

Reliable Statistics Have High Value for the Economy

A recent working paper by Nicholas Bloom from Stanford University, Erica Groshen—former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) now at Cornell University—along with Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain from the American Enterprise Institute think tank, attempts to estimate this. Bloom’s research with his team shows that reliable official statistics have enormous economic value. They estimate that every US$1 spent on agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) can generate up to US$25 in economic benefits. The BLS itself has an annual budget of around US$700 million and is responsible for various crucial data, from labour market figures to inflation. These findings affirm that every dollar used in government data projects is not a cost, but an investment.

When Trust Collapses, the Impact is Immediately Felt

One real example occurred in August 2025, when Donald Trump dismissed the head of the BLS, Erika McEntarfer, after the agency significantly revised employment data. Trump accused the BLS of releasing survey results to make his party and himself look bad. This unsubstantiated accusation triggered a sharp surge in economic uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index, which measures how often the media discusses “economic uncertainty,” has been recorded to spike since the dismissal incident. In addition to the EPU, the impact of McEntarfer’s dismissal is also evident in various indicators. In fact, the arbitrary dismissal itself is viewed negatively by many observers. In the seven days following the incident, the average Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index surged 50% compared to the previous week. This index tracks the number of articles in US newspapers discussing economic policy uncertainty each day. This surge is very significant, even compared to the chaos from Trump’s trade war in April 2025 or his military conflict with Iran in the past two months. Based on a previous study by Mr Bloom and his colleagues on the impact of EPU on business investment, industrial production, and employment, the authors estimate that this uncertainty spike reduces US GDP by more than US$100 billion (0.3%) and cuts non-farm payrolls by 168,000 jobs (0.1%). Although this dismissal had a major impact, the surge in economic uncertainty was also triggered by the resignation of a Federal Reserve official on the same day. The US case underscores the importance of credible statistics as a vital foundation for the economy. If trust in data declines due to political intervention or low participation, economic uncertainty will soar. This is highly likely to happen because without credible data, economic actors are ultimately forced to make decisions in conditions of minimal information, with risks of losses that are difficult to calculate.