This Pharmaceutical Issuer Suddenly Soared 177%, How Did It Happen?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Moderna (MRNA) shares recorded a sharp rise this week after the US pharmaceutical company announced the latest development in cancer treatment.

Citing Refinitiv data, Moderna shares soared 176.97% in trading on Wednesday (19/8/2026) to US$174.38 per share, compared with the previous close of US$62.96.

Although a day later, Moderna’s share price corrected 23.55% to US$133.32. However, the shares strengthened again by 8.86% and closed at US$145.13 on Friday (21/8/2026).

Despite the correction, Moderna’s share price was still up 130.5% compared with the position before the announcement.

Cancer Vaccine Success Drives Moderna Shares

The rise in Moderna shares was driven by the success of a Phase III clinical trial of a cancer vaccine developed together with Merck.

The vaccine is called intismeran autogene or mRNA-4157. Its use is combined with Keytruda, Merck’s immunotherapy drug used to treat several types of cancer.

The study, named INTerpath-001, involved 1,137 melanoma patients, a type of skin cancer, at stages IIB to IV.

All participants had undergone tumour removal surgery but still faced the risk of cancer recurrence. Some patients received the combination of intismeran and Keytruda, while the comparison group received only Keytruda.

As a result, patients who received the combination of the two therapies were able to survive longer without experiencing recurrence. The treatment also helped extend the time before the cancer spread to other parts of the body.

This success is an important development because mRNA-based cancer therapy designed according to each patient’s condition achieved its primary endpoint in a Phase III clinical trial.

The findings reinforce the results of a previous study involving 157 stage III and IV melanoma patients.

In a five-year follow-up, the combination of intismeran and Keytruda reduced the risk of cancer recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone.

The risk of cancer spreading to other organs or causing death also fell by 59%.

However, both figures came from the Phase II study. Moderna and Merck have not yet announced the magnitude of risk reduction in the latest Phase III trial.

The two companies stated that they found no new safety issues. The most common side effects in previous studies included fatigue, pain at the injection site, and chills.

How the Vaccine Works and Moderna’s Potential Additional Revenue

Unlike vaccines in general, intismeran is not given to healthy people to prevent cancer.

This therapy is used after surgery to help the body recognise and attack cancer cells that may still remain. The formula is made according to the tumour characteristics of each patient.

The process begins with examination of tumour tissue to identify mutations in cancer cells. Moderna then selects up to 34 cancer markers or neoantigens that can be recognised by the immune system.

Information about these markers is inserted into mRNA molecules. After injection, the vaccine helps the immune system recognise the distinctive features of the patient’s cancer cells.

Meanwhile, Keytruda inhibits the PD-1 protein that cancer cells can exploit to evade immune system attacks. The combination of the two makes the immune system better able to recognise and attack cancer cells.

Opportunities for Moderna’s Performance Improvement

The success of the cancer vaccine development provides new hope for Moderna, which is still struggling to improve its financial performance after demand for Covid-19 vaccines declined.

In 2022, Moderna’s revenue reached US$19.26 billion with net profit of US$8.36 billion. However, its revenue then continued to decline to only US$1.94 billion in 2025.

The company also recorded losses for three consecutive years since 2023. In 2025, Moderna’s net loss reached US$2.82 billion.

The pressure continued into 2026. During the first half, Moderna posted revenue of US$534 million, but its net loss reached US$2.12 billion.

Under these conditions, the success of intismeran opens up the opportunity for a new product that can add revenue while reducing the company’s dependence on Covid-19 vaccines.

If it obtains regulatory approval, the therapy could be marketed for melanoma patients who have undergone surgery. Barclays analysts estimate that sales of the melanoma therapy could reach around US$3 billion by 2035.

That projection is even larger than Moderna’s entire 2025 revenue. However, profits from the development and marketing of intismeran will be shared with Merck according to the cooperation agreement between the two companies.

Its potential is also not limited to melanoma. Moderna and Merck are testing a similar approach for lung, bladder, and kidney cancers.

If development for other cancer types succeeds, the number of patients who can receive the therapy will be even greater. That condition opens up broader additional revenue opportunities in the coming years.

The Phase III success has also increased investor confidence that Moderna’s mRNA technology can generate new businesses beyond Covid-19 vaccines.

Hope for increased revenue and improved financial performance is what drove investors to buy up Moderna shares after the research results were announced.

Nevertheless, intismeran has not yet obtained regulatory approval and is not yet commercially available. The size of the profits the company can obtain still depends on the evaluation of health authorities, production costs, therapy pricing, and market acceptance.