This election is no better than previous ones: CSIS
JAKARTA (JP): This year's general election will be no better than previous ones, according to a recent report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The CSIS study found that the 1997 general election process relied on the same legislation which was used in past general elections to maintain the status quo.
The study, which was obtained by The Jakarta Post yesterday, says that most of its 294 respondents had negative views on the May 29 election.
The center found that the quality of the election would be poor because all the laws and state institutions relating to it were designed to favor Golkar, the government-backed political grouping.
The laws allow manipulation and poll rigging, the report says.
"These worries have grounds because all the legislative instruments were formulated by the government.
"In real politics, it's clear that almost all government officials are ex-officio executives of one of the contestants, Golkar," the report says.
The center had surveyed people on their hopes, assessments and expectations of the general election.
The respondents, consisting of community leaders, government and military officials and politicians, were surveyed in in-depth interviews in March in 23 regencies and mayoralties in Java and Madura. The study also sought supplementary public responses through the internet.
The study focused on people's predictions on the quality of this year's election.
Respondents said the government used the general election as a mere formality to maintain its legitimacy.
The study says the 1997 election "does not give a ray of hope" for political reform in Indonesia.
The election is a tool by which politicians from Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) meet their vested interests. The election will not fulfill people's hopes for a better system, the survey report says.
Golkar's practically five-year-long campaign in the form of "cadres meetings" and PDI's split into two opposing camps will contribute to the poor quality of the election.
"It is not surprising therefore that many people consider the general election is a mere formality and a waste of money," the report says.
The study concluded that Golkar would increase its absolute majority and the PPP would gain more seats in the House of Representatives at the cost of the PDI.
The study did not predict how many seats each party would hold.
Golkar's and PPP's gains are likely to be partly due to the unpopularity of the PDI's government-recognized chief Soerjadi.
Golkar is expected to do better than it did in 1992 because its has spent five years campaigning for public support in some areas of Central and East Java, which are PPP strongholds.
Golkar, PPP and PDI will vie for 425 seats in the House of Representatives. In 1992, Golkar won 282 seats, PPP 62 and PDI 56.
Golkar aims to win 70.2 percent of the vote on May 29. The PPP wants 22.5 percent. The PDI has no formal targets but Soerjadi once said he hoped the party would win at least 33 seats in the House.
T.A. Legowo of the CSIS said yesterday that he believed Golkar would win between 65 percent and 70 percent of the vote. PPP could enjoy an increase of up to 10 percent while PDI would see its number of votes drop by up to 9 percent.
The report recommended that the state sincerely try to improve the quality of general elections so that democracy could develop.
"Without sincere efforts to improve elections, political manipulation will remain," the report said.
J. Kristiadi, also of CSIS, said the Golput call to boycott the poll would achieve little except help Golkar win more seats.
Kristiadi said Golput was an urban phenomenon that was unpopular in villages, where local officials make poll abstaining almost impossible.
He said those in rural areas do not usually have the abstaining option due to various reasons, including widespread intimidation. "The villagers are afraid that if they abstain from voting, they would be accused of being a communist," he said. (pan)