Third Round of US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations in Geneva: Trump's Military Threat and the Risk of Middle East Conflict
US and Iranian officials met for the third round of indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday, February 26, in an effort to ease tensions and prevent potential open conflict amid President Donald Trump’s threat of possible military action if a nuclear deal fails to be reached.
Teuku Rezasyah, an international relations expert, believes that this round will not differ much from previous ones. According to him, the positions of both countries remain opposed, and both continue to maintain a tough stance.
“The third round will be like the previous rounds. The United States will continue to pressure Iran to close all nuclear facilities and freeze its ballistic missile program. For Iran, this pressure is an affront to Iran’s dignity and forces Iran to submit to the United States. This situation challenges both the United States and Iran, as it shortens the fuse for war,” said Teuku Rezasyah, contacted by Media Indonesia on Thursday, February 26.
Regarding Trump’s threat of military action if diplomacy fails, he believes that this statement is more of a political pressure tactic than a signal of imminent action.
“President Trump, as usual, will make threats, but he will not dare attack Iran. This situation benefits Iran, as it allows it to sharpen various counter-strategies, should the United States attack. Iran’s targets for retaliation are very clear: cities in Israel, all US military bases in the Middle East, and US warships in strategic waters of the Middle East,” he said.
He also outlined several geopolitical scenarios that could occur if negotiations fail to reach an agreement. If negotiations fail, Teuku Rezasyah said that the following scenarios may occur. First, the repatriation of foreign workers in many Middle Eastern countries to their home countries. Second, the exodus of Israeli citizens to various countries, in accordance with their dual citizenship status.
Furthermore, third, the rotation of troops at many US military bases in the Middle East. Fourth, increased arms purchases from China and Russia, followed by the deployment of military advisors to various countries that purchase them.
Finally, increased US pressure on Gulf states to immediately allow the opening of their airspace for US attacks on Iran.
According to him, this dynamic shows that any failure of diplomacy has the potential to widen the impact of the crisis, not only for Washington and Tehran, but also for the stability of the Middle East region as a whole. (Fer/P-3)
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