The World's 10 Largest Rice Producing Countries: Who are Indonesia's Competitors?
Asia serves as the world’s rice granary and its largest market. The significant role of Asia means that changes in production, weather, policy, or trade disruptions in a single Asian nation can quickly destabilimse global rice supplies and prices.
Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that this dominance remains very strong. India and China hold the top positions, while Indonesia also features among the world’s largest rice producers.
Asia Dominates Global Rice Production
India is set to be the world’s largest rice producer for the 2025/2026 season, with production reaching 154.02 million tonnes, equivalent to 28.2% of total global production. China follows in second place with a production of 146.33 million tonnes, or 26.8%. Combined, these two nations contribute approximately 55% of the world’s rice production.
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Cambodia complete the top ten rice producers. Indonesia ranks fourth globally with a production of 33.8 million tonnes.
USDA Cuts Rice Production Projections
The USDA has reduced its global rice production projections for the 2026/2027 season, primarily due to declining production in India and Bangladesh. In the September 2026 Rice Outlook, the USDA estimates that global rice production for September 2026/27 will reach 533.9 million tonnes, down from 545.9 million tonnes in September 2025/26. This decline occurs despite an increase in global starting stocks to 202.7 million tonnes.
On the demand side, global consumption and residual use are projected to reach 5t539.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Meanwhile, global rice exports are expected to stand at 62.7 million tonnes in 2026/27.
In India, El Niño conditions have caused the monsoon rains to arrive later and in smaller quantities, leading to drier land conditions. As of early August, rainfall during the monsoon season in southwest India was recorded at nearly 12% below the long-term average. These conditions have disrupted paddy cultivation in several key production states, particularly in the eastern and southern peninsula regions. India’s paddy planting area for the Kharif season is expected to decrease by approximately 4%, or 1.4 million hectares, compared to 2025/2026. Consequently, the USDA has cut India’s 2026/2027 rice production projection by 3 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes due to declining productivity and harvest area. If realised, India’s production will record its first annual decline since 2015/2016.
Bangladesh’s 2026/2027 rice production has been cut by 1% to 36.9 million tonnes based on milled rice. The Boro season production, which accounts for about 54% of national production, has been impacted by fertiliser shortages lasting until the end of 2025 and flooding in the Haor Basin region in early 2026. Meanwhile, the Aus season planting area has also decreased as farmers switch to other commodities. Flooding at the start of the season also delayed Aus paddy planting.
Sri Lanka Sets New Record
In contrast to India and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka’s rice production is projected to reach a record 3.7 million tonnes in 2025/2026. The USDA has raised estimates for both harvest area and productivity, with the latter expected to increase by 10%. This increase is linked to the rising use of fertiliser after the Sri Lankan government revoked the 2021 policy that previously prohibited its use.
Global Consumption Cut
Alongside the decline in Indian production, the USDA has also reduced the global rice consumption and use projection for 2026/2027 by 3.2 million tonnes to 539.6 million tonnes. India’s rice consumption has also been cut because its domestic production is expected to be lower. Nevertheless, India’s rice consumption is still projected to reach an all-time high. This consumption is expected to be approximately 4 million tonnes higher than the previous record in 2024/2025. The increase in consumption is driven by the Indian government’s programme to strengthen food security and expand the use of rice as a raw material for ethanol production. Currently, India has set an ethanol blending mandate of 20%.
Global Exports Remain Nearly Unchanged
Meanwhile, the projection for global rice exports in 2026/2027 remains almost unchanged at 62.7 million tonnes, after a slight reduction of 160,000 tonnes. The largest decrease comes from Cambodia, with export projections cut by 200,000 tonnes to 3.6 million tonnes. Cambodia’s sales to neighbouring Vietnam are expected to remain sluggish. Cambodia typically exports paddy rice to Vietnam, which possesses superior milling, drying, and storage infrastructure, providing a cost advantage. In line with this, the USDA has cut Vietnam’s rice import projection for 2026/2027 by 200,000 tonnes to 3.6 million tonnes, primarily due to weakening demand for paddy rice from Cambodia.