The World Needs a New Approach to Save the Earth
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JOHANNESBURG – Global scientists believe that current global policy approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increasingly complex future of the Earth. Climate crises, loss of biodiversity, and socio-economic inequality are considered interconnected, requiring a new, more systemic analytical model.
In an article published in the journal One Earth, researchers state that many global scenarios still rely on old assumptions that the problems of the future will not differ significantly from current conditions. This approach is considered too narrow to address the various crises occurring simultaneously.
The scientists assess that the models used so far tend to maintain existing economic systems, government structures, and social norms. As a result, policy simulations project more worsening conditions without opening up possibilities for major changes that could alter the course of the Earth’s future.
Earth Commission scientist and lead author of the article, Laura Pereira, said that global scenarios have focused more on improving the future without addressing systemic change. “If we want a successful path, we need tools that can explore various economic models, various power structures, and various relationships between society and nature, not just different technologies,” said Pereira, as quoted from Phys.org, Saturday (16/5/2026).
According to Pereira, the world is facing not a single crisis, but a collection of interacting crises, ranging from climate change, loss of biodiversity, to socio-economic inequality. However, existing policy models have not been able to describe the interactions between crises or changes in power, institutions, and social values that shape the future of the Earth.
The Earth Commission is a group of global scientists formed to identify critical planetary boundaries to maintain climate stability, availability of clean air and water, and sustainable biodiversity through an interdisciplinary approach.
Researchers have used Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) to understand the Earth’s system. The model combines economic, energy, climate, and environmental aspects to assist in global policy decision-making.
IAM is a reference for governments and international organizations in predicting the impact of carbon emissions, energy policies, and changes in land use. The results of this model simulation are also the basis for global assessments and various international negotiations related to climate and biodiversity.
However, researchers assess that IAM has limitations because it often uses business-as-usual assumptions, where the global economic system is considered stable, power structures do not change, consumption patterns are relatively the same, and solutions rely more on technology and efficiency.
Pereira believes that many global scenarios fail to answer fundamental questions about the distribution of benefits and costs from transition policies, including who has a voice in determining the future of the Earth. The lack of a Global South perspective is considered one of the main weaknesses in formulating global scenarios so far.
As an alternative, scientists encourage the development of a new generation of “integrated transformative scenarios” that combine climate action, biodiversity protection, and social justice agendas. This approach is proposed to be developed together with a wider range of actors, including indigenous peoples and local communities.
The article also proposes the establishment of a scenario secretariat led by countries in the Global South to strengthen interdisciplinary integration while opening up space for alternative economic approaches in understanding the future of the Earth.
“We see a real need to move beyond business-as-usual modeling and start creating a shared future that reflects the diversity of societies, knowledge, and values around the world,” said Director of Science at the European Commission, Albert Norström.