The World Holds Its Breath as US-Iran Stand on the Brink of a New War

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Tensions between the United States and Iran are entering a dangerous new phase three months after Washington and Israel launched strikes against Tehran. The deadlock now emerges amid the US blockade of Iran’s ports and Tehran’s strict control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route that is the lifeblood of global energy trade.

The situation has sparked fresh concerns among international policymakers, no longer over whether a peace agreement can be reached, but how long the standoff can endure before miscalculation by Washington or Tehran triggers open war again.

Calls for launching a new strike against Iran are also growing in the US and Israel. Several officials believe that additional pressure could weaken Tehran’s position and push it back to the negotiating table.

However, this view was rebutted by Danny Citrinowicz, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel and a former head of the Iran division in the Israeli Defence Intelligence.

“There is one big problem with that theory: we have tested it, time and again, and Iran does not surrender,” he said, cited by Reuters, Tuesday (19 May 2026).

A regional official even described the current situation as a long-running war that remains vulnerable to flaring up at any moment.

“We are in an attrition war with the prospect of a new US-Israel attack growing day by day,” he said.

An Iranian official speaking to Reuters stressed that the missile programme, nuclear capabilities, and control of the Strait of Hormuz are not merely policy tools but ideological pillars underpinning the survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

For Tehran, relinquishing these strategic assets would not be a compromise but a surrender. That, according to Citrinowicz, helps explain why even prolonged military confrontation has failed to shift Iran’s red lines.

“Therefore, further escalation is unlikely to succeed,” he said.

Several rounds of indirect talks mediated by Pakistan so far have also failed to produce meaningful breakthroughs. The gap between the two sides is still widely seen as wide.

US and Iran confidence

The US is demanding that Iran halt uranium enrichment for 20 years and send all its stockpiled uranium to the United States.

Conversely, Iran is seeking an end to attacks, security guarantees, war compensation, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, demands that Washington has so far rejected.

US President Donald Trump had previously warned Tehran that ‘time is running out’ and said Iran must move quickly, or there will be nothing left of them. Trump also warned that if Tehran fails to reach a deal with Washington, Iran would face ‘a very bad time’.

Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, assessed that both sides are yet to be willing to make the ‘painful concessions’ required to reach a deal.

“Both believe time is on their side and that they hold the superior position, and it is that perception that makes a deal seem impossible,” he said.

As a result, the conflict has now shifted into a war of attrition centred on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

Before the war broke out, the Strait was used for around 25% of world oil trade and 20% of global LNG shipments. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz almost closed, the economic impact is widening and disrupting global energy supply chains.

Former Iranian official at the US State Department, Alan Eyre, even suggests that a deal may never be reached.

“These two sides will never reach a deal. Trump not only wants to win; he wants to humiliate Iran and appear to have destroyed Iran,” he said.

A senior Iranian official stressed that Tehran views enriched uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz as strategic assets essential to its survival.

“Iran is therefore determined to use these assets to safeguard its interests,” he said.

He added that surrender is not an option for the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“We fight, we die, but we will not accept humiliation. Surrender is fundamentally against Iran’s identity.”

Iran’s Economy Under Pressure Behind its Defiant Stance

Although defiant, Iranian sources close to the power circle describe a different reality behind the scenes. Tehran is said not to want a prolonged ‘no war no peace’ situation as inflation soars, unemployment worsens, and attacks on critical industries continue to erode an economy that is already battered.

Therefore, Iran is said to be pursuing an initial agreement to end the war.

The scheme Iran seeks is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision in exchange for the lifting of the US blockade, before tackling more complex issues such as sanctions relief and nuclear limits.

But Washington wants any discussion on ending the war to take place at a later stage.

On the nuclear issue, Iranian sources say Tehran would be prepared to dilute its 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium or send some of it abroad, mainly to Russia, with the justification that Iran could reclaim it if Washington violates the deal.

Washington has rejected that proposal.

Iran also pressed for an end to uranium enrichment within a shorter timeframe than the US’s 20-year demand, and demanded full access to frozen assets worth US$30 billion.

But according to the source, Washington is only prepared to release a quarter of those assets gradually.

The Strait of Hormuz Becomes the Most Difficult Point

Tehran also wants a new governance mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz and rejects reverting to the pre-war status quo.

Conversely, the US demands the strait be opened unconditionally, with no charges or Iranian veto rights. The difference is seen as even greater.