The rise of retired generals: Last wake-up call for reformists

Ardimas Sasdi, Berkeley, California

Worried about the return of the military to power through the July 5 election and the subsequent resurgence of an authoritarian regime, respected Muhammadiyah chairman Syafii Ma'arif criticized civilians for not working hand in hand. He urged them to unite to halt the troubling trend.

"The rise of military leaders is a logical consequence of the failure of the civilian government. Civilian leaders failed to be introspective and this opened the way for the military to return to power," Ma'arif told Tempo Interaktif on Friday.

Ma'arif, a scholar who was educated in the U.S., laid part of the blame on civilian intellectuals who had studied in the U.S. and Europe. Such figures preferred to establish their own parties rather than uniting as one strong force to build a democratic and prosperous country, he said.

"Observe that such parties only gained less than 1 percent of the vote as they could not perceive the psyche of the nation. So the (imminent) return of the military to power is something that we must accept," Ma'arif said.

Legislator Pramono Anung Wibowo of President Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) concurred with Ma'arif saying the future of democracy would be in jeopardy if a former military figure were elected president. The democracy evolved six years ago after the fall of president Soeharto, who ran Indonesia with an iron fist for 32 years

Nurcholish Madjid, another U.S.-trained scholar, whom many praise for his wisdom, said people had reason to worry over the possible resurgence of an authoritarian regime. However, he quickly explained the nomination of ex-military officers as presidential candidates, such as Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party and Gen. (ret) Wiranto of the Golkar Party, should not be simplistically understood as the return of an authoritarian regime.

Nurcholish said that Susilo and Wiranto were now civilians and that a leader cannot be judged solely on his background. He cited the high reputation of Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower as U.S president after World War II, although he came from the military.

Polls consistently show that Susilo -- who has also secured the tacit endorsement of many Western countries, though he has been accused of human rights violations, like many other Indonesian generals -- is more popular than other presidential candidates, including Megawati.

People began to seriously worry about the rise of military power only after Wiranto won the Golkar convention last week in what could be viewed as a veiled coup against the leadership of Akbar Tandjung.

The victory automatically confirmed Wiranto as presidential candidate of Golkar, which gained the highest percentage of votes (22 percent) in the legislative election on April 5.

The chance of Wiranto winning is big, if not almost certain. The party's experienced lobbyists will likely coax smaller parties to coalesce and woo the poor, who comprise over 40 percent of Indonesia's 225 million population.

Experts believed that Golkar will allocate all resources, including money, to regain the presidency in 2004 as it would be more difficult for the party to make a comeback in 2009.

And, if the people are easily swayed by the promise of Golkar's money, only the government is to be blame for this. It failed to improve the economy, combat corruption and maintain security -- which was widely reported by the press.

Not ignoring the failures of civilian governments after Soeharto, the current situation in Indonesia is similar to the trend in other countries. Results of a three-year survey of 18,600 people in 18 Latin American countries, except Cuba, by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) showed that the majority of people in these nations would chose authoritarian rule over democracy if it eased poverty.

Interestingly, the UNDP report -- which was published by U.S. media on Thursday -- found that most Latin America leaders felt they were slowly losing the ability to shape policy in their own countries due to the rising influence of America and international lending institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Indonesia undoubtedly has similar problems to the 18 countries but luckily there is still time, although not much. This is the last wake-up call for reform forces -- reformist leaders, students and non-governmental organizations -- to mobilize and set aside their differences. They must assemble to arrive at a common platform in order to halt the military's return to power and an authoritarian regime.

The writer, a Staff Writer of The Jakarta Post, is a visiting scholar at the Graduate School of Journalism of the University of California, Berkeley. He can be contacted at ajambak@calmail.berkeley.edu