The relevance of ASEAN

When the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established in Bangkok on Aug. 8, 1967, the foreign ministers each of the founding members, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed the Bangkok Declaration in which they set up a seven-point "aim and purposes" to be achieved by the group. They included the acceleration of economic growth, the promotion of regional peace and stability and the acceleration of active collaboration and mutual assistance among its members.

On Thursday, when ASEAN celebrates its 35th anniversary, the Bangkok Declaration's spirit is expected to become a strong inspiration for ASEAN leaders, especially when Indonesian President Megawati Soekarnoputri, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra plan to hold a mini summit and witness the signing of an agreement on the International Tripartite Rubber Corporation (ITRC) in Bali.

Earlier in the morning, Megawati and Mahathir will hold a separate summit to boost economic cooperation and to resolve prevailing problems between the two neighbors. We hope that the two leaders will be able to show their statesmanship in solving the expulsion of Indonesian illegal workers from Malaysia for the mutual benefit of the two friends. A successful summit could be a nice gift for ASEAN's anniversary.

The anniversary commemoration, and the three leaders' summit occur amid growing doubts over the effectiveness, and even the relevance of its existence.

Looking at the recent ASEAN Annual Foreign Ministerial Meeting and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Brunei, some might conclude that external powers had overshadowed the meeting. It is also not exaggerating if some people feared that the United States' global war on terror had sidelined the no less urgent regional problems, like migrant worker problems during the ministerial meeting.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell stole the show at the ARF while the ASEAN ministers looked like cheerleaders for the leading actor. A similar scene also could be seen when ASEAN leaders hosted an informal summit with the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea in Brunei last year. It appeared that the guests were the main attraction and the ASEAN delegates were again reduced to awed spectators.

Until the financial crisis hit the region in 1997, ASEAN was a fairy tale and was often described as the model for a regional group and the darling of global investors. All the countries in the region had become part of the association by April 1997 when Cambodia became the 10th member of ASEAN. The newly independent East Timor may also be granted ASEAN membership one day.

The fall of Soeharto -- the real leader of the group in charge of a population of 200 million -- in 1998 accelerated the weakening of the regional group by creating a leadership vacuum. Most of the members also became too busy with their own domestic agenda -- specifically struggling to overcome the economic crisis.

Indonesia itself is still unable to get rid of its domestic chaos and if this continues it may become a liability for the region. Indonesia's recovery is still very far away, therefore foreign affairs will not be a top priority for its leaders anytime soon.

No other regional leaders, even those with the respect of Mahathir, can fulfill this leadership vacuum. Mahathir often portrays himself as the spokesman of developing countries with his confrontational approaches against the West. Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is also a respected leader in ASEAN, but his seniority and capability alone are not enough to play the anchor role like Soeharto could.

ASEAN also faces bilateral disputes among its members, like the border problems between Thailand and Myanmar, and territorial disputes between the Philippines and Malaysia.

But it does not mean that ASEAN has lost its meaning. The experience of the European Union or the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) shows that it takes several decades to realize the dreams of such groupings. There have been ups and downs in their journey.

ASEAN implemented the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in January this year although the road is still long for full economic integration. However by doing so, the group can reply to critics that it is not like NATO (sometimes referred to as the "No Action Talk Only" group) by replying that AFTA stands for "Action First, Talk After."

We hope that the Bali summit will become a new cornerstone for regional cooperation, where senior leader Mahathir will share his insights about ASEAN with his younger colleagues, Megawati and Thaksin. It is a symbol of continuation of leadership.

ASEAN can do much for the prosperity of its members. However, its future mainly depends on the vision and goodwill of its leaders and not just on external power.