The probable rise of Megawati

By Kornelius Purba

JAKARTA (JP): Amid growing expectations that Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will follow in her father's political footsteps, tremendous distrust remains regarding her competence and preparedness to take over as the country's fifth president.

Many people are concerned about her ability to revive the dying economy, in stopping the threat of national disintegration and in taming the powerful military.

There are also suspicions about what she will do with Soeharto, who forced Sukarno to surrender power in 1966. Yet, others ask whether she will be skillful enough to handle her husband, Taufik Kiemas, who has reportedly nurtured business interests by using his political connections.

Many diplomats from industrialized countries will also be closely monitoring her every move, including whether she will follow Sukarno's adventurous diplomacy and antiwestern stance.

"Ibu Megawati has her own platforms and policy blueprints. She has made extensive preparations for leading the country," Vice Presidential Secretary Bambang Kesowo said in a recent conversation with The Jakarta Post.

According to one of her economic advisors, Megawati's priority is economic recovery. Realizing her limited knowledge in this area, she asked them to program economic briefs into her computer.

"She will tell us frankly if she does not understand. This is much better than Gus Dur, who pretends to understand the economy but always falls asleep during Cabinet meetings," the official said.

The economist said that, if elected to lead the country, with a strong populist tendency in the economy, Megawati would stick to market-oriented economic policies.

"In the short term, her target is to end unchecked political and security chaos. Stability is the key to economic recovery; it looks simple but, as you have seen, Gus Dur has failed to implement this fundamental," said the economist.

Another trusted advisor, who has had a long career in the government, added: "Realizing that the military can become a major source of disturbance, Ibu is firm (in her commitment) to restore their dignity."

Megawati has two separate economic advisors. At Merdeka Selatan Palace, she is assisted by Susiaty and Gunawan Sumodiningrat. Susiaty is a former director general of state financial institutions at the Ministry of Finance. Gunawan, a professor at Gajah Mada University, previously worked for the National Development Planning Board.

Within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) which she chairs, former coordinating minister for the economy Kwik Kian Gie and Laksamana Sukardi are her key economic advisors.

The Vice President has also told PDI Perjuangan executives that she would select her own core Cabinet team. She would most likely follow Soeharto's strategy early in his tenure, where he appointed technocrats to his economic team.

Megawati has a strong tendency to clearly distinguish between her roles as vice president and party leader. There are practically no PDI Perjuangan executives working at Merdeka Selatan Palace. She may continue this strategy if she replaces President Abdurrahman Wahid.

President Soeharto agreed to allow Megawati to enter politics in 1986, apparently because he believed Megawati was the most moderate compared to her other siblings, especially Guntur Soekarnoputra and Rachmawati Soekarnoputri.

In 1987, Megawati was elected as a legislator representing the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI). Soeharto slowly realized that she was a threat, even though she rarely spoke in public.

The government refused to recognize her election as the party's chairwoman in mid-1993.

Through the support of Jakarta Military commander Maj. Gen. Hendropriyono and senior officer Agum Gumelar, however, Soeharto later softened his stance and Megawati's leadership was recognized by the government in December 1993.

One year before the 1997 general election though, Soeharto then ousted Megawati from the party post. Soeharto ruthlessly forced Megawati's supporters to abandon the party's Central Jakarta headquarters in 1996. The bloodshed that resulted is remembered as the July 27 tragedy.

Her supporters, including economist Kwik Kian Gie, banker Laksamana Sukardi who joined her team in 1993, and businessman Sutjipto, remained loyal to her during the difficult times under Soeharto.

Though these three figures are among her key advisors, Megawati feels more comfortable in seeking advice from those who worked for her father. Former Sukarno ministers Ruslan Abdul Gani and Frans Seda, and politician Abdul Madjid, are among people whose opinions she always respects.

She prefers to seek advice from the persons whom she has known for a long period of time, including old friends.

Meanwhile, she has never forgotten the contribution of Lt. Gen. Hendropriyono and Minister of Communications Lt. Gen. (ret) Agum Gumelar. She often turns to them for advice regarding military affairs.

"Megawati is very smart. She is just like her father," Frans recently remarked on Megawati's capacity to lead the country.

Megawati has no less a colorful marriage story compared to her father. Born in Yogyakarta, on Jan. 23, 1947, Megawati lost her first husband in 1970, not long after Sukarno's death in June that year.

Her husband, Air Force First Lt. Surindro Supjarso, died along with six crew members of a Skyvan T-701 which crashed in Biak, Irian Jaya. Megawati was left with the couple's eldest son, M. Rizki Pratama, and a baby in her womb. She named her second son M. Prananda.

According to the book Tragedi Megawati, she later married Egyptian diplomat Hassan Gamal Ahmad Hasan on June 27, 1972, in Sukabumi. Several hours later, however, the Jakarta Special Religious Court annulled their marriage because the Air Force had not made an official clarification in relation to her first husband's death.

Then Megawati married Taufik Kiemas, a member of the Indonesian National Student Movement (GMNI) and whose family strongly supported Sukarno. Megawati and Taufik had a daughter, Puan Maharani.

According to family friends, Taufik played a crucial role in the Sukarnos' financial life during the 1970s, who were struggling against president Soeharto's constriction of all sources of income for Sukarno's children.

In the 1970s, Jakarta governor Ali Sadikin, who was appointed to the position by Sukarno, also assisted Megawati and her other siblings. Ali assisted Megawati open a gas station business, which was managed by Taufik. Now the family owns eight stations.

Megawati's close friends revealed Taufik's love for his two stepsons and how he always tries to act as an exemplary father for them.

It was Taufik who strongly encouraged Megawati to enter politics in 1986. Megawati broke the Sukarnos' 1982 consensus, in which they said they would avoid politics.

"Megawati owes Taufik a lot. As her third husband and much less popular than Megawati, he never has any feelings of inferiority. It is unimaginable for Megawati to abandon Taufik," said a former minister under Sukarno.

Megawati recently assured her close aides that she is still able to control her husband. "He is only the head of my family," an official quoted her as saying.

Many people have described Megawati as a conservative. Compared to Abdurrahman, who pays little attention to protocol, the rigid protocol regulations enforced under Soeharto may regain emphasis if Megawati were to take power.

Journalists will also suffer after enjoying pleasant freedoms under the talkative President Abdurrahman; Megawati does not like publicity.

The nation is in waiting for a new leader. Will she really be able to realize her dream to create a better Indonesia?

The writer is a journalist with The Jakarta Post.