The power game

For many people at the grassroots level in Indonesia, Megawati Sukarnoputri has been the great hope for the country ever since she withstood the efforts of former president Suharto to depose her as leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party in 1996. It was her courage in the face of military thuggishness that won her massive support in the June parliamentary election, and brought her the consolation prize of the vice-presidency when Abdurrahman Wahid was elected last October.

But Mr. Wahid's announcement that he is finally about to delegate some powers to his second-in-command, giving her more say in the day-to-day running of the cabinet, is welcomed more for its tacit acknowledgement of his own limitations, than for confidence in the abilities of Ms. Megawati to solve Indonesia's economic woes.

Lack of political experience aside, she has not been very effective in her efforts to halt the violence between Muslims and Christians in the Malukus. That is the only yardstick by which it is possible to judge her skills, since she has otherwise kept a low profile over the past 10 months.

But the more important point in recent events in Jakarta is that "Gus Dur" (President Abdurrahman Wahid) has held on to his job by telling parliament what it wanted to hear. National stability is maintained at least for the time being. It will be some time before it becomes clear whether parliament can draw up ground rules that ensure that Ms. Megawati has genuine power, but perhaps only a short period after that to determine whether she is sufficiently adroit to stay in control in a system where there are so many vested interests in resisting reforms and maintaining the status quo.

The Vice-President's support from other parliamentarians may be in part because they think she could be easier to manipulate than he President.

A major bargaining session will now be going on, with all parties jockeying for a share of power. But it is part of the political reality in Jakarta that reformers must accept they have to make deals with some less welcome bedfellows if they are to survive.

Pruning the cabinet to 25 members should help to streamline the system, making it easier for her to establish firm control; but the crucial question is precisely how much power Mr. Wahid is prepared to relinquish. He is not a man to let go of the reins easily.

And if, as his critics point out, he has made little progress on the domestic front, that is in part due to the difficulties of dealing with a civil service that flourished under former president Suharto, and has no appetite for reforms. His performance may have been erratic, but is there anyone in the background who could do any better?

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong