The next two years crucial for Susilo to retain power
Tony Hotland, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
After a relatively ineffective run this year, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration should make use of all political support it has enjoyed in the next two years to implement his suspended development policies, analysts said.
Having spent a year mired in efforts to reach a political consensus, the President should make the most of 2006 and 2007 to prove his presidential skills before parties begin to prepare themselves for the 2009 general elections.
Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) director Saiful Mujani said the President was expected to hit fewer political obstacles after singling out two out of 10 major parties -- the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the second largest and self-styled opposition group, and the small Prosperous Peace Party (PDS).
"With almost all major parties on his side, the next two years should be Susilo's golden period where he can implement his plans to develop this country. If he fails, that means he'll have pretty much a slim chance to lead again," Saiful said during a seminar hosted by the Freedom Institute over the weekend.
Saiful said stumbling blocks from the House of Representatives would not be substantial, unless there were new issues or policies that might generate opposition from the public at large. Current examples of these are the importation of rice, land acquisition regulations, or the fuel price hikes.
But based on experiences this year alone, efforts to summon the President or create a special House committee of inquiry took too much time and later fell by the wayside due to the House's bureaucratic procedures and unbalanced political composition.
Indonesian Institute director of research Anies Baswedan expressed a similar projection that next year's domestic politics would be cool and stable, particularly with the huge composition of moderate-minded people inside the current administration.
"These people are accustomed to negotiating during conflicts and all have similar interests, because they know failure in terms of political compromise would only pave the way for the hard-liners and the radicals into the system," he said.
In terms of changes in political parties, the two expected stability as well, particularly with the subsiding of internal conflicts in parties such as the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Reform Star Party (PBR).
Political turbulence from parties that are now part of the government's coalition, said Saiful, would start to become visible in 2008 because they would raise much stronger criticism as they prepare for the 2009 general elections.
A significant jolt, in fact, would likely come from the biggest party, Golkar, which supported Susilo's administration only after Vice President Jusuf Kalla took the reins of the party in December 2004.
"Golkar is in a huge dilemma by supporting Susilo. If his administration succeeds, the credit will mostly go to him. But if he fails, the blame will be shared with Golkar as the biggest supporter. Either way, the question will be whether or not the party would continue to support him in the next election?" said Saiful.
Attention should be paid to the involvement of more entrepreneurs in politics and the creation of new political parties, he added.
A recent LSI research revealed that only about 30 percent of voters were entirely loyal to their parties.
Saiful said there had been a declining percentage of people identifying themselves with parties as most constituents felt their chosen parties had failed to represent their interests.
"Such a thing was effectively evident with the emergence of Susilo's Democrat Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), both garnering large amounts of votes in 2004 election," he said.