The next two years crucial for Susilo to retain power

The next two years crucial for Susilo to retain power

Tony Hotland, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

After a relatively ineffective run this year, President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono's administration should make use of all
political support it has enjoyed in the next two years to
implement his suspended development policies, analysts said.

Having spent a year mired in efforts to reach a political
consensus, the President should make the most of 2006 and 2007 to
prove his presidential skills before parties begin to prepare
themselves for the 2009 general elections.

Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) director Saiful Mujani said
the President was expected to hit fewer political obstacles after
singling out two out of 10 major parties -- the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the second largest and
self-styled opposition group, and the small Prosperous Peace
Party (PDS).

"With almost all major parties on his side, the next two years
should be Susilo's golden period where he can implement his plans
to develop this country. If he fails, that means he'll have
pretty much a slim chance to lead again," Saiful said during a
seminar hosted by the Freedom Institute over the weekend.

Saiful said stumbling blocks from the House of Representatives
would not be substantial, unless there were new issues or
policies that might generate opposition from the public at large.
Current examples of these are the importation of rice, land
acquisition regulations, or the fuel price hikes.

But based on experiences this year alone, efforts to summon
the President or create a special House committee of inquiry took
too much time and later fell by the wayside due to the House's
bureaucratic procedures and unbalanced political composition.

Indonesian Institute director of research Anies Baswedan
expressed a similar projection that next year's domestic politics
would be cool and stable, particularly with the huge composition
of moderate-minded people inside the current administration.

"These people are accustomed to negotiating during conflicts
and all have similar interests, because they know failure in
terms of political compromise would only pave the way for the
hard-liners and the radicals into the system," he said.

In terms of changes in political parties, the two expected
stability as well, particularly with the subsiding of internal
conflicts in parties such as the National Awakening Party (PKB)
and the Reform Star Party (PBR).

Political turbulence from parties that are now part of the
government's coalition, said Saiful, would start to become
visible in 2008 because they would raise much stronger criticism
as they prepare for the 2009 general elections.

A significant jolt, in fact, would likely come from the
biggest party, Golkar, which supported Susilo's administration
only after Vice President Jusuf Kalla took the reins of the party
in December 2004.

"Golkar is in a huge dilemma by supporting Susilo. If his
administration succeeds, the credit will mostly go to him. But if
he fails, the blame will be shared with Golkar as the biggest
supporter. Either way, the question will be whether or not the
party would continue to support him in the next election?" said
Saiful.

Attention should be paid to the involvement of more
entrepreneurs in politics and the creation of new political
parties, he added.

A recent LSI research revealed that only about 30 percent of
voters were entirely loyal to their parties.

Saiful said there had been a declining percentage of people
identifying themselves with parties as most constituents felt
their chosen parties had failed to represent their interests.

"Such a thing was effectively evident with the emergence of
Susilo's Democrat Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS),
both garnering large amounts of votes in 2004 election," he said.