The next Afghanistan

The next Afghanistan

The National Review and analysts at the Heritage Foundation
have already declared Indonesia the next Afghanistan.

Such overheated rhetoric is a mistake. Looking at Southeast
Asia through the lens of Afghanistan will lead U.S. policymakers
to the wrong conclusions and the wrong policy. The analogy will
cause Washington to overestimate the threat of al-Qaeda links to
groups in the area and will push it into an over-militarized
response to the problems that do exist -- a response that will be
at best ineffective and at worst counterproductive.

Even if al-Qaeda operatives in Southeast Asia are neutralized
and Abu Sayyaf is crushed, the underlying conditions that
facilitated the emergence of these movements -- namely, weak
states unable to enforce basic law and order, and the economic
marginalization and political subordination of large segments of
their populations -- will continue to exist.

If Washington really wants to make a lasting contribution to
peace and security in the area, it should work to address these
basic flaws and not just beef up its military contributions or
law enforcement operations.

-- John Gershman, Foreign Affairs, New York