The next Afghanistan

The next Afghanistan

The National Review and analysts at the Heritage Foundation have already declared Indonesia the next Afghanistan.

Such overheated rhetoric is a mistake. Looking at Southeast Asia through the lens of Afghanistan will lead U.S. policymakers to the wrong conclusions and the wrong policy. The analogy will cause Washington to overestimate the threat of al-Qaeda links to groups in the area and will push it into an over-militarized response to the problems that do exist -- a response that will be at best ineffective and at worst counterproductive.

Even if al-Qaeda operatives in Southeast Asia are neutralized and Abu Sayyaf is crushed, the underlying conditions that facilitated the emergence of these movements -- namely, weak states unable to enforce basic law and order, and the economic marginalization and political subordination of large segments of their populations -- will continue to exist.

If Washington really wants to make a lasting contribution to peace and security in the area, it should work to address these basic flaws and not just beef up its military contributions or law enforcement operations.

-- John Gershman, Foreign Affairs, New York