The Makkah Pact and Turkey's Strategic Autonomy
On 7 August 2026, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a Joint Defence Agreement in Makkah (the Makkah Pact). The agreement carries significance beyond establishing a framework for strengthening military relations among the three countries. The pact is important chiefly because it demonstrates the emergence of strategic linkages between West Asia and South Asia, as well as efforts by countries in the region to further integrate and coordinate their defence capabilities.
In this context, Turkey’s position holds particular significance. The capabilities Turkey has developed in its defence industry have become one of the factors enriching its foreign and security policy instruments. The transformation of Turkey’s defence industry has expanded the room for manoeuvre available to Ankara’s foreign policy. However, these capabilities do not mean Turkey has been freed from all strategic dependencies.
Therefore, the significance of the Makkah Pact for Turkey should not be assessed by its potential to achieve ‘full autonomy’, but rather by the extent to which the pact can diversify and expand the strategic options Turkey already possesses. In other words, the key question is not whether this pact can eliminate dependency, but whether it can enhance Turkey’s ability to manage and diversify the various dependencies that remain.
One of the most striking characteristics of the Makkah Pact is the differing capabilities of the three participating countries. Saudi Arabia has advantages in terms of substantial financial resources and investment; Pakistan possesses extensive military capabilities and strategic deterrence; while Turkey has a defence industry, operational experience, and military standards connected to NATO. These differences can become complementary strengths if successfully integrated into a mechanism for building strategic capabilities jointly.
In recent years, the advancement of Turkey’s defence industry has significantly altered the country’s role in the regional security landscape. A number of academic and policy studies show that the expansion of Turkey’s defence industrial capabilities has enriched the instruments available for its foreign policy.
This transformation is not limited to increased production capacity. The influence of the defence industry on foreign policy also relates to Turkey’s ability to deploy military force in various regions, export defence products, and expand security partnerships that do not rely solely on the provision of platforms or defence equipment.
Here an important issue for Turkey emerges. Defence industry progress does contribute to the diversification of Ankara’s foreign policy instruments. However, the concept of strategic autonomy does not mean the ability to ‘produce everything independently’. Strategic autonomy is more accurately understood not as the elimination of all dependencies, but as the ability to manage critical dependencies effectively.
These developments show that Turkey possesses significant capabilities in the defence industry, while also revealing structural limitations in pursuing a fully independent defence industrial base, especially when considering the enormous economic and technological costs.
This assessment has two important implications for the Makkah Pact. On one hand, Turkey can make a substantial contribution in defence technology and operational capability. On the other hand, the pact can open opportunities for joint financing, collaborative research and development (R&D), and co-production in areas where independent technological development would impose excessively high costs on Turkey.
Therefore, Turkey’s interest should not stop at making the Makkah Pact a new market for its defence industry products. More importantly, the pact should be transformed into a platform for joint capability development in specific areas.
This distinction is important. Market-based relations primarily serve to expand defence exports. By contrast, capability-based partnerships encompass joint development, technology sharing, joint financing, interoperability, and the possibility of co-production.
Within this framework, air and missile defence, unmanned systems, electronic warfare, cyber security, satellite-based intelligence, and command and control systems can become potential areas of cooperation. However, genuine integration in these areas also requires harmonisation of technical standards, data security arrangements, export control regimes, and rules concerning intellectual property rights.
To assess the significance of the Makkah Pact for Turkey, the concept of strategic autonomy needs to be distinguished from a narrow understanding of military self-sufficiency. Turkey’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is not a new phenomenon. However, in recent years, the concept has become increasingly prominent in Ankara’s foreign and security policy discourse.
In this context, strategic autonomy is increasingly understood as a framework for expanding the options available to Turkish decision-makers, rather than as a synonym for self-sufficiency. From this perspective, strategic autonomy should not be understood solely as a step to distance Turkey from its existing alliances.
On the contrary, the concept needs to be examined by considering simultaneously structural orientation, political motivation, and economic foundations. Such an approach also demands attention to the various geopolitical and economic constraints that shape as well as limit Turkey’s efforts to pursue strategic autonomy.
Increased strategic autonomy does not mean Turkey is withdrawing from the international system. The concept refers more to strengthening the state’s capacity to act in accordance with its interests.