The Future of Global Geoenergy After OPEC's Split

The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effective 1 May 2026, after joining nearly six decades ago in 1967, is a political stance that is not entirely surprising. Longstanding rivalries with Saudi Arabia—the leader of the OPEC oil cartel—in controlling economic resources, minerals, and energy in the region, as well as the race for technological dominance, have been a ticking time bomb ready to explode at any moment. The UAE’s exit, as the third-largest crude oil exporter in the region after Saudi Arabia and Iraq with a production capacity of 4.8 million barrels per day, will directly or indirectly alter the geoenergy map both in the region and globally. Many speculate that the main reason for the UAE’s departure from OPEC membership is disappointment and dissatisfaction with regional countries that have been passive in responding to Iran’s military actions throughout the United States (US)-Iran war since 28 February. Iran’s attacks also struck civilian and tourist areas in Dubai, such as Palm Jumeirah and Dubai International Airport. The UAE, through Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash, even openly stated in the media that regional countries are weak towards Iran. However, this disappointment with Iran and the passive stance of regional countries, most of which are OPEC members, is believed not to be the primary determinant in that decision. Differences in political views and rivalries in various fields with Saudi Arabia, which often claims to be the “regional leader,” are seen as the main cause. In the regional geopolitical context, the UAE and Saudi Arabia differ in views on various conflict fronts, such as those in Yemen and Sudan. In December 2025, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), supported by the UAE, launched a major attack on Hadramaut and al-Mahra in Yemen. This attack provoked the wrath of Saudi Arabia, which directly borders both regions. Saudi Arabia views the attack as a direct threat to its national security and a violation of agreements with the UAE. In Sudan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are once again at odds. The UAE provides political and military support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which control much of Sudan’s informal gold trade as well as land routes to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia supports the Sudanese Armed Forces and the central government.