The endless game of political gladiators

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): As predicted, none of the competing parties emerged as a majority in both the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) and the House of Representatives (DPR). The new political constellation will certainly affect the political games in the upcoming MPR General Session and the political dynamics in the DPR afterwards. Whoever wants to seek the presidency has to win the game. Then whoever wins the game will have to face new challenges with the new constellation in the DPR wherein the opposition parties will together hold a majority of seats. Given the absence of any single majority party, all hold significant bargaining power for supporting or rejecting a presidential candidate in the MPR's presidential election as well as passing or rejecting bills, motions or laws in the DPR.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) found that the political games had not ended yet with its success to gain numerical superiority in the last polls. The winner has to recognize that gaining support from the public may be easier than gaining support from other political contestants. This challenge is not somewhat trivial as the ruling Golkar party now has some respectable reasons to maneuver the political game. Meanwhile, some Islam-based parties are now mounting a great challenge by forming a reform faction. It is accordingly reasonable to say that the real political game has just started since the national vote-counting process is nearly finalized. The ability to lead a political maneuver in the game will certainly affect the success to achieve power.

This is a logical consequence of the PDI Perjuangan's commitment to be consistent with the Constitution and the procedure of law. The party wants to prove that respecting the Constitution and laws is the only possible way to show the victory of truth. Meanwhile, other partisans attempt to show that such a conservative attitude will prove nothing and, accordingly, there should be a reform of the Constitution and legal procedures. This is to say that the ongoing political game has transformed into an essential process of the institutionalization of old values and principles versus that of new values and principles. The game will not end after a great deal is made on the single presidential candidate, but particularly after an accord on the revision of some values and principles is built.

How long will the game take place? Who will win the game? Megawati? Habibie? Or Amien Rais's alternative candidate? These questions are now gaining interest for examination. But it is more interesting to examine the way the political gladiator was used to outperform the others. Will PDI Perjuangan sustain its approach to call other gladiators to learn democracy and hope they will pave the way for the winner of the polls to occupy the top office? Or, will PDI Perjuangan enter the political game which is dominated by a male realists' approach?

So far, Megawati seems to prefer adopting a wait-and-see approach than a proactive one. In some respects, the approach seems to bring some prospective. The debate about the gender issue is now decreasing as many Muslims see it as actually somewhat controversial among Muslims themselves. Megawati's silence hence proves useful to eliminate the debate. PDI Perjuangan now finds the right moment to respond to the issue of Muslim and non-Muslim legislators after the party stayed silent for a length of time. PDI Perjuangan is now rearranging the composition of its elected representatives to eliminate the controversial issue. PDI Perjuangan needs time to wait until its counterparts cool their heads before reacting to debated issues. In a deeper meaning, PDI Perjuangan always follows procedures before responding to much criticism.

Yet such an approach may not be effective in the near future. The party really needs a breakthrough to establish a stable route to the presidency before entering the General Session. It will be the most difficult part of the party's struggle for power.

First, PDI Perjuangan has to gain a political guarantee from its representatives to act in a unitary manner. If the secret ballot with the one man, one vote system is adopted in the presidential election, the party needs individual commitments from 154 representatives to cast their votes for Megawati. To build such loyalty is no simple matter now since there are some candidates of legislators whose political career record in the party is questionable. The party needs to conduct an internal consolidation before entering the MPR session and to control its representatives during the session. Such consolidation and tight control are important, particularly in overcoming the possible use of money politics. Yet such tight control is not popular in democracy as the system will give all members their own independence in electing the new leadership.

Secondly, PDI Perjuangan needs 197 additional votes to gain majority. To do so, the party should make a lot of proactive efforts. The party's representatives have to make every endeavor to win the election of 135 local representatives. Of course, it is not a simple matter as PDI Perjuangan, leading the seat- gathering in 11 provinces, has to compete with ruling Golkar which leads in 14 provinces. Even more so, Golkar may outperform PDI Perjuangan in the elections. If each party gains two of the five seats contested in provinces where the party wins the polls, and one seat in provinces where the party loses to others, PDI Perjuangan may gain only 36 seats while Golkar gets 39. Golkar may collect more than two seats in provinces such as North and South Sulawesi where the party won an absolute majority in the polls.

PDI Perjuangan should also lobby 65 group representatives to gain additional support substantial to establish a majority. It is unfortunate that the mechanism of the elections of group representatives is more complicated than that of the elections of local representatives. The process may take long as the General Elections Commission (KPU), which holds an autonomous right, may need awhile to produce an accord among its members on group representatives. Accordingly, the lobby may be conducted a few minutes before or during the General Session. This will sustain uncertainty about the amount of additional support PDI Perjuangan will collect from group representatives.

Given such unpredictable results of the first and second possible efforts, PDI Perjuangan now needs to initiate a formation of an alliance with other parties. Forming a cooperation with the National Awakening Party (PKB) may not be difficult since there was overt support presented by some leaders of the party. Yet the alliance between PDI Perjuangan and PKB will generate only 50 additional votes or about 25 percent of the 197 additional votes needed. If 36 seats collected through the election of local representatives are added here, PDI Perjuangan will gain 86 votes and be 111 less than the total of additional votes needed.

There is strong reason for evolving the alliance with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and other minor parties. PAN, whose bargaining power is likely to increase with the possible formation of a reform faction, may demand PDI Perjuangan to fulfill some conditions of such an alliance. Though complicated, political bargaining between PDI Perjuangan and PAN will certainly generate a democratic alliance as the two parties need to agree on some principal conditions, such as constitutional reform, the gradual change of the military's dual function and the investigation of the past regime's wrongdoing. This will also produce a new approach to a combination of moderate and radical party attitudes.

The formation of the alliance will bring 84 additional votes to support PDI Perjuangan in winning the presidential election. The three parties together will hold 238 seats in the DPR. It means PDI Perjuangan still needs to make other efforts to secure the route to the presidency as well as establish stable majority in the DPR.

The combination of all the above efforts will lead the PDI Perjuangan to gain about 300 votes when the party is entering the real political game in the General Session. Serious cooperation with PDI Perjuangan's partners in the alliance will prove helpful to gain the other 51 support votes. Gus Dur and Amien Rais, who both have great capabilities as lobbyists, will stand together with Megawati to persuade other legislators, local representatives and group representatives.

The public should not wait and see if all the political games will end in the General Session after a new leadership is elected. The constructive compromise will bring about full support for PDI Perjuangan in leading Megawati to the Merdeka State Palace. How long the game takes now depends on PDI Perjuangan's initiative of whether the party wants to conduct a compromise with other reform parties or continues the political game which might be never ending.

The writer is a lecturer on international relations at the Parahyangan Catholic University and a researcher at the Parahyangan Center for International Studies in Bandung.