The endless game of political gladiators

The endless game of political gladiators

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): As predicted, none of the competing parties
emerged as a majority in both the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR) and the House of Representatives (DPR). The new political
constellation will certainly affect the political games in the
upcoming MPR General Session and the political dynamics in the
DPR afterwards. Whoever wants to seek the presidency has to win
the game. Then whoever wins the game will have to face new
challenges with the new constellation in the DPR wherein the
opposition parties will together hold a majority of seats. Given
the absence of any single majority party, all hold significant
bargaining power for supporting or rejecting a presidential
candidate in the MPR's presidential election as well as passing
or rejecting bills, motions or laws in the DPR.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan)
found that the political games had not ended yet with its success
to gain numerical superiority in the last polls. The winner has
to recognize that gaining support from the public may be easier
than gaining support from other political contestants. This
challenge is not somewhat trivial as the ruling Golkar party now
has some respectable reasons to maneuver the political game.
Meanwhile, some Islam-based parties are now mounting a great
challenge by forming a reform faction. It is accordingly
reasonable to say that the real political game has just started
since the national vote-counting process is nearly finalized. The
ability to lead a political maneuver in the game will certainly
affect the success to achieve power.

This is a logical consequence of the PDI Perjuangan's
commitment to be consistent with the Constitution and the
procedure of law. The party wants to prove that respecting the
Constitution and laws is the only possible way to show the
victory of truth. Meanwhile, other partisans attempt to show that
such a conservative attitude will prove nothing and, accordingly,
there should be a reform of the Constitution and legal
procedures. This is to say that the ongoing political game has
transformed into an essential process of the institutionalization
of old values and principles versus that of new values and
principles. The game will not end after a great deal is made on
the single presidential candidate, but particularly after an
accord on the revision of some values and principles is built.

How long will the game take place? Who will win the game?
Megawati? Habibie? Or Amien Rais's alternative candidate? These
questions are now gaining interest for examination. But it is
more interesting to examine the way the political gladiator was
used to outperform the others. Will PDI Perjuangan sustain its
approach to call other gladiators to learn democracy and hope
they will pave the way for the winner of the polls to occupy the
top office? Or, will PDI Perjuangan enter the political game
which is dominated by a male realists' approach?

So far, Megawati seems to prefer adopting a wait-and-see
approach than a proactive one. In some respects, the approach
seems to bring some prospective. The debate about the gender
issue is now decreasing as many Muslims see it as actually
somewhat controversial among Muslims themselves. Megawati's
silence hence proves useful to eliminate the debate. PDI
Perjuangan now finds the right moment to respond to the issue of
Muslim and non-Muslim legislators after the party stayed silent
for a length of time. PDI Perjuangan is now rearranging the
composition of its elected representatives to eliminate the
controversial issue. PDI Perjuangan needs time to wait until its
counterparts cool their heads before reacting to debated issues.
In a deeper meaning, PDI Perjuangan always follows procedures
before responding to much criticism.

Yet such an approach may not be effective in the near future.
The party really needs a breakthrough to establish a stable route
to the presidency before entering the General Session. It will be
the most difficult part of the party's struggle for power.

First, PDI Perjuangan has to gain a political guarantee from
its representatives to act in a unitary manner. If the secret
ballot with the one man, one vote system is adopted in the
presidential election, the party needs individual commitments
from 154 representatives to cast their votes for Megawati. To
build such loyalty is no simple matter now since there are some
candidates of legislators whose political career record in the
party is questionable. The party needs to conduct an internal
consolidation before entering the MPR session and to control its
representatives during the session. Such consolidation and tight
control are important, particularly in overcoming the possible
use of money politics. Yet such tight control is not popular in
democracy as the system will give all members their own
independence in electing the new leadership.

Secondly, PDI Perjuangan needs 197 additional votes to gain
majority. To do so, the party should make a lot of proactive
efforts. The party's representatives have to make every endeavor
to win the election of 135 local representatives. Of course, it
is not a simple matter as PDI Perjuangan, leading the seat-
gathering in 11 provinces, has to compete with ruling Golkar
which leads in 14 provinces. Even more so, Golkar may outperform
PDI Perjuangan in the elections. If each party gains two of the
five seats contested in provinces where the party wins the polls,
and one seat in provinces where the party loses to others, PDI
Perjuangan may gain only 36 seats while Golkar gets 39. Golkar
may collect more than two seats in provinces such as North and
South Sulawesi where the party won an absolute majority in the
polls.

PDI Perjuangan should also lobby 65 group representatives to
gain additional support substantial to establish a majority. It
is unfortunate that the mechanism of the elections of group
representatives is more complicated than that of the elections of
local representatives. The process may take long as the General
Elections Commission (KPU), which holds an autonomous right, may
need awhile to produce an accord among its members on group
representatives. Accordingly, the lobby may be conducted a few
minutes before or during the General Session. This will sustain
uncertainty about the amount of additional support PDI Perjuangan
will collect from group representatives.

Given such unpredictable results of the first and second
possible efforts, PDI Perjuangan now needs to initiate a
formation of an alliance with other parties. Forming a
cooperation with the National Awakening Party (PKB) may not be
difficult since there was overt support presented by some leaders
of the party. Yet the alliance between PDI Perjuangan and PKB
will generate only 50 additional votes or about 25 percent of the
197 additional votes needed. If 36 seats collected through the
election of local representatives are added here, PDI Perjuangan
will gain 86 votes and be 111 less than the total of additional
votes needed.

There is strong reason for evolving the alliance with the
National Mandate Party (PAN) and other minor parties. PAN, whose
bargaining power is likely to increase with the possible
formation of a reform faction, may demand PDI Perjuangan to
fulfill some conditions of such an alliance. Though complicated,
political bargaining between PDI Perjuangan and PAN will
certainly generate a democratic alliance as the two parties need
to agree on some principal conditions, such as constitutional
reform, the gradual change of the military's dual function and
the investigation of the past regime's wrongdoing. This will also
produce a new approach to a combination of moderate and radical
party attitudes.

The formation of the alliance will bring 84 additional votes
to support PDI Perjuangan in winning the presidential election.
The three parties together will hold 238 seats in the DPR. It
means PDI Perjuangan still needs to make other efforts to secure
the route to the presidency as well as establish stable majority
in the DPR.

The combination of all the above efforts will lead the PDI
Perjuangan to gain about 300 votes when the party is entering the
real political game in the General Session. Serious cooperation
with PDI Perjuangan's partners in the alliance will prove helpful
to gain the other 51 support votes. Gus Dur and Amien Rais, who
both have great capabilities as lobbyists, will stand together
with Megawati to persuade other legislators, local
representatives and group representatives.

The public should not wait and see if all the political games
will end in the General Session after a new leadership is
elected. The constructive compromise will bring about full
support for PDI Perjuangan in leading Megawati to the Merdeka
State Palace. How long the game takes now depends on PDI
Perjuangan's initiative of whether the party wants to conduct a
compromise with other reform parties or continues the political
game which might be never ending.

The writer is a lecturer on international relations at the
Parahyangan Catholic University and a researcher at the
Parahyangan Center for International Studies in Bandung.