Thai PM's Muslim insurgency blame game a blunder: analysts

Thai PM's Muslim insurgency blame game a blunder: analysts

Michael Mathes
Agence France-Presse/Bangkok

The Thai premier's attempt to shift blame onto Malaysia and
Indonesia for his failure to quell an Islamic insurgency in
southern Thailand was a blunder that threatened regional ties,
analysts warned.

Thaksin Shinawatra's administration had often stressed that
mounting separatist violence in the south that has left more than
560 people dead this year was fueled in part by Muslims returning
radicalized from study overseas.

But when he stated in a weekly radio address Dec. 18 that Thai
militants were training across the border in the jungles of
Malaysia, and had received inspiration from extremists in
Indonesia, he stirred up a hornets' nest.

"It was a huge breach of diplomatic etiquette for the prime
minister, who should not make such comments in public," said
Phuwadol Songprasert, a lecturer in regional relations at
Bangkok's Kasetsart University.

"Such comments have made both the Malaysian and Indonesian
governments unhappy" and could damage their ties with the
majority Buddhist kingdom, he told AFP.

Kuala Lumpur, which has detained some 80 alleged Islamic
militants of the al-Qaeda-linked Jamaah Islamiyah extremist
network, bristled at Thaksin's words, with Premier Abdullah Ahmad
Badawi denying the charge and expressing disappointment Thaksin
did not use diplomatic channels to air his view.

Jakarta called on Thaksin to explain his allegations and
threatened to lodge an objection.

Ironically, Thaksin invoked an Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) covenant of non-interference in the affairs of
its 10 members, when he threatened to walk out of last month's
ASEAN summit if it broached the topic of Muslim unrest in his
country.

Most ASEAN states are to some degree battling local
insurgencies, yet no other regional leader in recent years has so
bluntly broadened the blame for such unrest to foreign soil.

"When you make mistakes and you can't contain something inside
your own country, you therefore try to externalize the problem,"
said Senator Kraisak Choonhavan, who chairs the Thai Senate's
committee on foreign affairs.

Thaksin backed off from the comments, claiming they had been
distorted by the media. But the damage was done.

"The prime minister insists on these shoot-from-the-hip
statements and instead of doing things to call for collaboration
he has been accusing people. It's a big blunder," the senator
added.

Analysts said dragging Malaysia and Indonesia into the debate
over responsibility for southern unrest was aimed partially at
bolstering domestic support ahead of Thai elections set for Feb.
6.

The ploy could backfire on the regional stage, where Thaksin
has long positioned himself to assume the mantle of Southeast
Asian statesman after the departure of Malaysia's longtime
premier Mahathir Mohamad.

Religious sensitivities in the region have heightened since
the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in the United States and as
governments team up with Washington in the global war on
terrorism.

Muslim communities have reacted with horror at incidents in
southern Thailand this year, including the suppression of a riot
in October in Tak Bai that left at least 87 Muslim protesters
dead.

Thaksin's "refusal to castigate or bring about any punitive
action against overuse of force ... has offended countries which
are rapidly moving the other way towards greater democracy and
rights, such as Indonesia," Kraisak said.

Soedjati Djiwandono, president of the Center for Strategic
International Studies, a private think tank in Jakarta, said
Thaksin's outburst would adversely affect bilateral relations.

"At the least, it would heighten a certain sense of distrust
between the two countries," he told AFP.

Compounding the Malaysia spat, Thaksin's Deputy Interior
Minister Sutham Sangprathum said Thailand had photographs of
training locations in Malaysia, but refused to show them. He
later reportedly declined to elaborate on the photos, citing a
gag order by Thaksin.

P. Ramasamy, a lecturer at the National University of
Malaysia, described the latest tensions as a "temporary hiccup
that will not hurt bilateral ties."

But he said if Thaksin wanted the trouble to end he should
introduce a problem-solving plan which includes a form of
autonomy for the southernmost provinces -- a suggestion Mahathir
made in October.

Some critics such as Malaysian opposition leader Lim Kit Siang
say Thaksin should apologize, particularly if no hard evidence is
forthcoming, for the outburst.

"If Thaksin cannot produce photographic evidence he should
publicly apologize for making unsubstantiated allegations that
Malaysia is the training ground for southern Thai Muslim
separatists and terrorists," Lim Kit Siang said.