Thai PM runs into obstacles during cabinet reshuffle

Thai PM runs into obstacles during cabinet reshuffle

By Rajan Moses

BANGKOK (Reuter): Despite winning a censure vote in parliament
over the weekend, embattled Thai prime minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh's political woes seem far from over.

His latest attempt to appease critics with a major cabinet
reshuffle, to bring in more technocrats to help beat Thailand's
deepening economic crisis, has hit snags.

Senior politicians in his nine-month-old, six-party coalition
have opposed including more technocrats in the cabinet, putting
Chavalit in a dilemma over whom to enlist.

In addition, there seems to be a dearth of technocrats willing
to join the administration as it battles the country's worst
economic turmoil in decades, analysts said.

The cabinet reshuffle is widely expected to take place before
Oct. 8 when Chavalit goes to Japan for a visit.

"The old guard and powerful politicians will be a major
obstacle for the premier to change his cabinet for the better and
bring in more qualified ministers. So the public should not lay
much hope in any new line-up," said Sukhum Naunskul, a political
scientist at Ramkhamhaeng University.

Coalition sources said Chavalit was under pressure from some
senior coalition partners to get rid of some ministers tarnished
during debate on the censure vote and bring in more respected
economists and technocrats to tackle the economic woes.

Some ministers were said by the opposition to have had inside
information on Thailand's flotation of the baht on July 2 that
enabled them to make huge profits. Others were accused of
corruption, and Chavalit himself of economic mismanagement.

Political sources said the demands on Chavalit are for about
half the 48-member cabinet to be technocrats.

But the powerful secretary general and other senior members of
Chavalit's New Aspiration Party (NAP) have voiced opposition to
including more technocrats.

"Outsiders will create more trouble for the government than
help," said NAP secretary general Snoh Thienthong, who also is
interior minister. "They go to colleges to study but they have no
experience in administration unlike elected politicians."

Said Phaijit Sirvorakarn, a NAP executive committee member:
"The idea of having 24 technocrats in the new line-up is too
much, and totally unacceptable."

Political analysts said factionalism and the decades-old
patronage system had made old guard politicians very powerful in
the coalition, and they would work to block Chavalit's efforts to
improve the image of his cabinet.

Others said a cabinet reshuffle alone would not repair the
image of Chavalit's government, and that the premier must resign.

"A reshuffle alone will not appease the people. The problem is
the prime minister himself. There is a crisis of leadership in
government and the number one (Chavalit) has to go for things to
improve," said an analyst who declined to be identified.

He said the premier was seen as a leader who listened too much
to his close aides and often changed his mind on issues.

But analysts said Chavalit might remain until at least next
May when he intends to hold elections. He could be ousted only if
his coalition partners withdraw their support, and that could not
be discounted in the future.

Senior coalition members oppose a new election, saying it is
unnecessary as the economy is in crisis.

"The prime minister is under intense pressure. On the one hand
he has to listen to the politicians, and on the other hand the
public demand is for him to fix the economy," said senior analyst
at a U.S. investment bank.

"On the cabinet issue, locals are going to react more than
foreign investors, who take a longer term view. In the short
term, the cabinet issue will hurt market sentiment," he added.

Thai stocks and the baht were muted in reaction to the
weekend's political news. "People are now waiting to see which
outsiders will be brought into the cabinet and who will go," said
a local broker.