Thai PM runs into obstacles during cabinet reshuffle
Thai PM runs into obstacles during cabinet reshuffle
By Rajan Moses
BANGKOK (Reuter): Despite winning a censure vote in parliament over the weekend, embattled Thai prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's political woes seem far from over.
His latest attempt to appease critics with a major cabinet reshuffle, to bring in more technocrats to help beat Thailand's deepening economic crisis, has hit snags.
Senior politicians in his nine-month-old, six-party coalition have opposed including more technocrats in the cabinet, putting Chavalit in a dilemma over whom to enlist.
In addition, there seems to be a dearth of technocrats willing to join the administration as it battles the country's worst economic turmoil in decades, analysts said.
The cabinet reshuffle is widely expected to take place before Oct. 8 when Chavalit goes to Japan for a visit.
"The old guard and powerful politicians will be a major obstacle for the premier to change his cabinet for the better and bring in more qualified ministers. So the public should not lay much hope in any new line-up," said Sukhum Naunskul, a political scientist at Ramkhamhaeng University.
Coalition sources said Chavalit was under pressure from some senior coalition partners to get rid of some ministers tarnished during debate on the censure vote and bring in more respected economists and technocrats to tackle the economic woes.
Some ministers were said by the opposition to have had inside information on Thailand's flotation of the baht on July 2 that enabled them to make huge profits. Others were accused of corruption, and Chavalit himself of economic mismanagement.
Political sources said the demands on Chavalit are for about half the 48-member cabinet to be technocrats.
But the powerful secretary general and other senior members of Chavalit's New Aspiration Party (NAP) have voiced opposition to including more technocrats.
"Outsiders will create more trouble for the government than help," said NAP secretary general Snoh Thienthong, who also is interior minister. "They go to colleges to study but they have no experience in administration unlike elected politicians."
Said Phaijit Sirvorakarn, a NAP executive committee member: "The idea of having 24 technocrats in the new line-up is too much, and totally unacceptable."
Political analysts said factionalism and the decades-old patronage system had made old guard politicians very powerful in the coalition, and they would work to block Chavalit's efforts to improve the image of his cabinet.
Others said a cabinet reshuffle alone would not repair the image of Chavalit's government, and that the premier must resign.
"A reshuffle alone will not appease the people. The problem is the prime minister himself. There is a crisis of leadership in government and the number one (Chavalit) has to go for things to improve," said an analyst who declined to be identified.
He said the premier was seen as a leader who listened too much to his close aides and often changed his mind on issues.
But analysts said Chavalit might remain until at least next May when he intends to hold elections. He could be ousted only if his coalition partners withdraw their support, and that could not be discounted in the future.
Senior coalition members oppose a new election, saying it is unnecessary as the economy is in crisis.
"The prime minister is under intense pressure. On the one hand he has to listen to the politicians, and on the other hand the public demand is for him to fix the economy," said senior analyst at a U.S. investment bank.
"On the cabinet issue, locals are going to react more than foreign investors, who take a longer term view. In the short term, the cabinet issue will hurt market sentiment," he added.
Thai stocks and the baht were muted in reaction to the weekend's political news. "People are now waiting to see which outsiders will be brought into the cabinet and who will go," said a local broker.