Thai parties jockey for support ahead of polls
Thai parties jockey for support ahead of polls
By Rajan Moses
BANGKOK (Reuter): The party of caretaker premier Banharn Silpa-archa was expected to be the main casualty in Thailand's November elections as parties jockeyed for support ahead of the polls, analysts and diplomats said on Monday.
With Chart Thai's hopes of becoming a core party in any new government looking slim, many of its 91 members of parliament were expected to defect, the political analysts and diplomats said.
Banharn dissolved parliament last Friday, angering several factions in his core party which headed a six-party coalition government. He made the surprise move a day before he was due to resign under pressure from several key coalition allies.
The main opposition Democrat Party, led by former premier Chuan Leekpai, and the New Aspiration Party (NAP) of Defense Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh were seen benefiting most from any losses in the outgoing Chart Thai party, political sources said.
Another opposition party, the Chart Pattana, headed by former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan, was also set to gain from the Chart Thai defections, they added.
The Democrats now have 86 seats, the NAP 57 and Chart Pattana 53.
"The musical chairs game has begun. We're going to see a series of mergers and acquisitions as politicians jockey ahead of the elections," said Graham Catterwell, country manager for investment house Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.
Billions of baht are traditionally spent by Thai political parties to woo strong candidates or MPs into their fold, while smaller parties merge to boost their prospects.
MPs and political parties must register to stand for the Nov. 17 election by a certain date after which the horse-trading stops. The election commission has not yet set the date, although many believed it could be around mid-October.
Political scientist Suchit Bunbongkarn of Chulalongkorn University said party realignments and potential defections were not a new phenomenon in Thai politics.
"This is not new to Thai politics but this time with the mass media watching things more closely the buying of politicians or parties could be done more subtly than before," he said.
The Banharn government came under very close scrutiny by the local media.
"It looks as if the Democrats and the NAP could be the core parties around which a new coalition government could emerge from the elections," said a diplomat who declined to be identified.
An alliance could not be ruled out between the two if they win the majority of seats in the enlarged 393-seat lower house of parliament, he added.
No single Thai political party has ever won a majority of seats in parliament and coalitions have been inevitable.
"We could see the demise of some small political parties in this round of realignments unless big parties sponsor them for their own purposes," said Chaiwat Khamchu, political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.
The small Seritham party, with 11 MPs now, was set to merge with the Democrats, said Jurin Laksanavisit, a senior Democrat party member.
The Chart Pattana party ruled out a merger with Banharn's Chart Thai party. A faction of at least 20 led by Chart Thai secretary general Sanoh Tienthong could join the NAP or even Chart Pattana, however, party sources said.
The main Bangkok-based Prachakorn Party and Palang Dharma Party (PDP) with 18 and 23 MPs, respectively, could be badly mauled in the next polls by the currently high-riding Democrats, political sources said.
Both had associations with the outgoing coalition.
"I foresee that new elections with old rules will not make any political improvement and vote buying will be rampant. So I will not run in this election," telecom tycoon and PDP leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, told reporters on Monday.