Thai election nears, Thaksin likely to win

Thai election nears, Thaksin likely to win

Ed Cropley, Reuters/Bangkok

Strange things have happened in Thailand's coup-prone political
history, but it will be an upset of epic proportions if Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra does not win by a landslide in
Sunday's general election.

Buoyed by a buzzing economy and with huge support from rural
voters -- the beneficiaries of four years of populist largesse --
the telecoms tycoon-turned-politician and his Thai Rak Thai
coalition are assured of another four years in power, analysts
say.

"Thai Rak Thai will win a huge majority. Their populist
policies benefit a huge portion of the people and this has been
underestimated," said Giles Ungphakorn, a political analyst at
Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

A poll in Thursday's Matichon newspaper forecast Thaksin's
party, which means "Thais Love Thais", winning 349 seats in the
500-member parliament, a result that would insulate it
comfortably against the possibility of any political censure.

The Asian edition of Time magazine, which ran a recent cover
of Thaksin under the headline Power Player, also suggested he was
on course for a 350-seat win, leading most analysts to skip
Sunday's poll and focus on the next four years.

Crucial to Thaksin's second term will be the strength of the
economy and whether it can generate enough cash to pay for
populist policies such as a "30 baht" healthcare plan or "Village
Fund" soft-loan scheme aimed at his core rural support base.

Although most economists expect the economy to continue the 6
percent expansion it has averaged in the last 3 years, some say
high international oil prices, a gradually appreciating currency
and slowing export growth could spoil the party.

"The second term will be tougher. It will not have conducive
factors like near-zero inflation and interest rates like in the
first term," said Somphob Manarangsan of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn
University.

Analysts say one of Thaksin's few potential pitfalls will be
the renewed violence in the Muslim far south, home to a low-key
separatist rebellion in the 1970s and 1980s and where more than
500 people were killed in 2004.

Despite flooding the relatively impoverished region along the
Malaysian border with thousands of troops and imposing localized
martial law, Thaksin has failed to bring the unrest under
control.

So far the insurgency has hit only the three southernmost
provinces, more than 1,300 km from Bangkok, and failed to become
a campaign issue even though security analysts fear it might
become a fertile breeding ground for Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda.

Some have even raised the possibility of Muslim insurgents
bombing the capital to avenge army brutality in the region,
especially the death of 78 Muslims in military custody following
a demonstration in October last year.

Thaksin has also managed to brush off intense criticism of his
administration's handling of the 2004 bird flu crisis and outrage
from human rights over his "war on drugs" in which 2,500 people
were killed.

"This election should be about the violence in the south and
human rights abuses by this government. It should be about the
best way to deal with bird flu and issues of privatization and
free trade agreements," said Ungphakorn.

"In fact, none of these things are discussed in this
election."