Thai election nears, Thaksin likely to win

Thai election nears, Thaksin likely to win

Ed Cropley, Reuters/Bangkok

Strange things have happened in Thailand's coup-prone political history, but it will be an upset of epic proportions if Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra does not win by a landslide in Sunday's general election.

Buoyed by a buzzing economy and with huge support from rural voters -- the beneficiaries of four years of populist largesse -- the telecoms tycoon-turned-politician and his Thai Rak Thai coalition are assured of another four years in power, analysts say.

"Thai Rak Thai will win a huge majority. Their populist policies benefit a huge portion of the people and this has been underestimated," said Giles Ungphakorn, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

A poll in Thursday's Matichon newspaper forecast Thaksin's party, which means "Thais Love Thais", winning 349 seats in the 500-member parliament, a result that would insulate it comfortably against the possibility of any political censure.

The Asian edition of Time magazine, which ran a recent cover of Thaksin under the headline Power Player, also suggested he was on course for a 350-seat win, leading most analysts to skip Sunday's poll and focus on the next four years.

Crucial to Thaksin's second term will be the strength of the economy and whether it can generate enough cash to pay for populist policies such as a "30 baht" healthcare plan or "Village Fund" soft-loan scheme aimed at his core rural support base.

Although most economists expect the economy to continue the 6 percent expansion it has averaged in the last 3 years, some say high international oil prices, a gradually appreciating currency and slowing export growth could spoil the party.

"The second term will be tougher. It will not have conducive factors like near-zero inflation and interest rates like in the first term," said Somphob Manarangsan of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Analysts say one of Thaksin's few potential pitfalls will be the renewed violence in the Muslim far south, home to a low-key separatist rebellion in the 1970s and 1980s and where more than 500 people were killed in 2004.

Despite flooding the relatively impoverished region along the Malaysian border with thousands of troops and imposing localized martial law, Thaksin has failed to bring the unrest under control.

So far the insurgency has hit only the three southernmost provinces, more than 1,300 km from Bangkok, and failed to become a campaign issue even though security analysts fear it might become a fertile breeding ground for Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda.

Some have even raised the possibility of Muslim insurgents bombing the capital to avenge army brutality in the region, especially the death of 78 Muslims in military custody following a demonstration in October last year.

Thaksin has also managed to brush off intense criticism of his administration's handling of the 2004 bird flu crisis and outrage from human rights over his "war on drugs" in which 2,500 people were killed.

"This election should be about the violence in the south and human rights abuses by this government. It should be about the best way to deal with bird flu and issues of privatization and free trade agreements," said Ungphakorn.

"In fact, none of these things are discussed in this election."