Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in second quarter, 2003 forecasts raised
Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in second quarter, 2003 forecasts raised
Agence France-Presse Bangkok
Thailand's economy grew 5.8 percent in the second quarter, pushing the full-year forecast to a healthy 5.8-6.2 percent from an earlier projection of 4.5-5.5 percent, according to data released on Monday.
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 6.2 percent year-on-year in the first half to June. In the first quarter GDP grew 6.7 percent from the previous year.
NESDB secretary-general Chakramon Phasukvanich said the second-quarter performance was satisfactory given the negative impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak on the region.
"GDP growth in the second quarter was higher year-on-year but slowed down from the first quarter because of SARS, which affected the tourism industry. Nonetheless, growth of GDP remained satisfactory," he said.
In the second quarter to June, the number of foreign tourists dropped 40.2 percent to 1.45 million, Chakramon told a news conference, adding that this resulted in a loss of 31 billion baht (US$764 million) in tourism income.
GDP growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by continued increase in domestic demand, consumption and investment, together with exports, he said.
Chakramon said the NESDB had raised the full-year GDP growth forecast for 2003 because of the lower-than-expected impact from SARS, which left Thailand largely unscathed compared to Singapore and Hong Kong in terms of actual cases.
The growth upgrade also reflects continued gains in exports amid clearer signs of a global recovery, as well as the rapid recovery of Asian economies from SARS, he said.
"NESDB expects Thailand will be upgraded by international credit rating agencies, both Moody's Investors Service and Standard and Poor's, on the back of strong economic fundamentals," he said.
Chakramon said risks associated with the economy in the second half are concerns over terrorism, uncertainties stemming from external factors and a possible spike in crude oil prices.
For 2004, the NESDB expects GDP to improve to 6.5-8.5 percent on the back of domestic economic fundamentals and growth in exports, he said.
The government's economic advisory body said the value of exports this year is expected to grow 12.1 percent to $75 billion while imports are seen up 12.4 percent at $71.3 billion.
Previously, the NESDB said it expected exports to reach $73.2 billion this year, up 9.5 percent, while imports were estimated at $70.7 billion, up 11.5 percent.
The current account surplus is projected at $7.6 billion, or 5.4 percent of GDP, compared with the previous estimate of $5.3 billion or 3.9 percent of GDP.
Inflation is seen at 1.9 percent, up from the previous forecast of 1.6 percent, Chakramon said.