Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in second quarter, 2003 forecasts raised
Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in second quarter, 2003 forecasts raised
Agence France-Presse
Bangkok
Thailand's economy grew 5.8 percent in the second quarter,
pushing the full-year forecast to a healthy 5.8-6.2 percent from
an earlier projection of 4.5-5.5 percent, according to data
released on Monday.
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)
said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 6.2 percent year-on-year
in the first half to June. In the first quarter GDP grew 6.7
percent from the previous year.
NESDB secretary-general Chakramon Phasukvanich said the
second-quarter performance was satisfactory given the negative
impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak
on the region.
"GDP growth in the second quarter was higher year-on-year but
slowed down from the first quarter because of SARS, which
affected the tourism industry. Nonetheless, growth of GDP
remained satisfactory," he said.
In the second quarter to June, the number of foreign tourists
dropped 40.2 percent to 1.45 million, Chakramon told a news
conference, adding that this resulted in a loss of 31 billion
baht (US$764 million) in tourism income.
GDP growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by
continued increase in domestic demand, consumption and
investment, together with exports, he said.
Chakramon said the NESDB had raised the full-year GDP growth
forecast for 2003 because of the lower-than-expected impact from
SARS, which left Thailand largely unscathed compared to Singapore
and Hong Kong in terms of actual cases.
The growth upgrade also reflects continued gains in exports
amid clearer signs of a global recovery, as well as the rapid
recovery of Asian economies from SARS, he said.
"NESDB expects Thailand will be upgraded by international
credit rating agencies, both Moody's Investors Service and
Standard and Poor's, on the back of strong economic
fundamentals," he said.
Chakramon said risks associated with the economy in the second
half are concerns over terrorism, uncertainties stemming from
external factors and a possible spike in crude oil prices.
For 2004, the NESDB expects GDP to improve to 6.5-8.5 percent
on the back of domestic economic fundamentals and growth in
exports, he said.
The government's economic advisory body said the value of
exports this year is expected to grow 12.1 percent to $75 billion
while imports are seen up 12.4 percent at $71.3 billion.
Previously, the NESDB said it expected exports to reach $73.2
billion this year, up 9.5 percent, while imports were estimated
at $70.7 billion, up 11.5 percent.
The current account surplus is projected at $7.6 billion, or
5.4 percent of GDP, compared with the previous estimate of $5.3
billion or 3.9 percent of GDP.
Inflation is seen at 1.9 percent, up from the previous
forecast of 1.6 percent, Chakramon said.