Testing time for East Timor: ASEAN's political perspective

Testing time for East Timor: ASEAN's political perspective

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

As the world's youngest nation, East Timor's independence will
be welcomed by the global community, although ASEAN is ambivalent
whether to include the country as its eleventh member.

In February ASEAN foreign ministers decided to throw the ball
into Dili's court, arguing that the East Timorese leaders had yet
to make up their minds on their own geographical identity --
whether they are in Southeast Asia or the South Pacific. Without
this decision, ASEAN cannot proceed with the future membership
issue. Judging from strong ASEAN sentiment, East Timor's long-
cherished hope that it could be a bridge between both regions
remains a distant dream.

ASEAN has adroitly used the lack of consensus to delay
admitting East Timor. Although Burma was hostile to Dili's
observer status because of the East Timor leaders' sympathy with
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, it has always been
Indonesia's deep psychological scare that defines ASEAN's stance.
Jakarta has flip-flopped from fully backing full membership for
East Timor under former president Abdurrahman Wahid to a more
recalcitrant policy under President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

In the absence of Indonesian clarity, ASEAN muddles through as
it does not want to upset Jakarta's delicate position. The
grouping realizes the whole situation still hinges on Indonesia's
domestic development linked to broader secessionist sentiments in
several provinces. Of late Megawati has forged closer ties with
the Indonesian armed forces in an effort to stabilize a fluid
political situation and maintain security. Doubtless Jakarta's
position on East Timor has been toughened.

Be that as it may, it is imperative for East Timor to announce
clearly and early that it belongs to Southeast Asia and would
like to become a member in the future. That way Dili can gauge
Jakarta's real intention and ASEAN's as well. When East Timor was
annexed in 1975 as the 27th province of Indonesia none questioned
its geographical identity as part of Southeast Asia.

Brunei was admitted as an ASEAN member immediately after it
gained independence in 1981 as a means to ensure its security
against mammoth neighbors and its eventual integration with the
region. The situation of East Timor is much more serious than was
Brunei's. With fresh memories of atrocities committed by
Indonesian troops, East Timor's accession to ASEAN may serve as a
shield for its fragile security against its former ruler. In the
long run this will discourage any tendency towards reinterference
on the part of the Indonesian army. After all, the Indonesian
army still suffers from the greatest humiliation for its actions
in East Timor.

For the time being ASEAN contends that the East Timorese
leaders, especially Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta, are not
serious about joining ASEAN because of their continued hostile
words about the grouping. Although Ramos Horta has recently
mellowed in his comments, many ASEAN members are still offended.
ASEAN also says that Dili does not show any enthusiasm to open
missions in member countries beyond Indonesia, a criterion for
membership.

Under these circumstances, several ASEAN members are wavering.
They argue that ASEAN should consolidate the new members admitted
since 1995 before considering East Timor's status. Thailand, for
instance, which used to be very supportive of East Timor's
integration, has adopted a low profile. Bangkok still wishes to
see East Timor's future security protected as part of ASEAN as it
deems it crucial to the region's peace and stability.

East Timor's best option seems to rest with Southeast Asia.
Apart from security, it can benefit from the myriad forms of
economic and social cooperation that ASEAN has with its dialogue
partners. Certainly, as an emerging democratic country, East
Timor must come to terms with the imperfect situation it
encounters in ASEAN.

On the other hand, the South Pacific Forum has been
enthusiastic in embracing East Timor. The forum views Dili as a
natural partner, representing an important step in strengthening
nation-building. Granted this goodwill, East Timor can always be
part of the forum.

For the time being, Dili's association with the forum,
especially with Australia and New Zealand, can be in the form of
bilateral relations or a subregional arrangement. This way it can
benefit from the assistance from these two rich neighbors.

East Timor can prevent ASEAN opacity and lack of consensus
obstructing its long-term objective of benefiting from both
worlds. Despite the ASEAN ethos and way of doing things, it is
still the East Timorese who will decide what is good for them,
and they should have that privilege with full ASEAN support.