Terrorism in RI: What does intelligence really know?

By Riza Sihbudi

JAKARTA (JP): The chief of the State Intelligence Agency Hendropriyono hinted recently that international terrorists were entering Indonesia. Jakarta Police Chief Insp. Gen. Sofjan Jacoeb had also earlier referred to the presence of three groups of bomb terrorists in Jakarta and its environs, namely Tommy Soeharto's group, the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and a terrorist group of Malaysian origin.

The statements of both high ranking officials handling the country's defense and security sectors were certainly based on pieces of evidence they had gathered.

Regardless of the validity of their evidence, the Malaysian government itself has complained about the suspected expansion of international terrorism in its country. Malaysia, as reported by the mass media, has begun to fear a foreign investment standstill unless the issue of terrorism is promptly dealt with. The indication of an international terrorism network now spreading to the Asian region is apparently seen as something serious.

An institute of studies in the United States, Jane's Information Group, has shown among other things that the ring of followers of Osama bin Laden is pervading Southeast Asia. Osama, whom the U.S. media call the most dreaded international "diehard terrorist big shot", is a millionaire of Saudi Arabia with the U.S. a main target of his struggle.

No wonder the U.S. government is willing to offer a prize of US$5 million to anybody capable of seizing Osama alive or dead. He hit headlines when his group attacked the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. The U.S. had then strived to retaliate by launching assaults on Sudan and Afghanistan, where Osama was strongly believed to be hiding.

His name is now heard again in connection with the spread of terrorist acts in Southeast Asia, particularly in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia. While in Malaysia Osman is linked with the group of Muslim "extremists" and in the Philippines with the group of Abu Sayyaf (Moro), in Indonesia Osama's ring is said to be operating in Maluku in relation to the jihad troops there, Aceh and Jakarta.

Is it true that Osama bin Laden has made Asia, especially Southeast Asia (including Indonesia), a target of his group's operation? A definite answer is not easy. However, if one takes note of Osama's modes of action so far and his group's ideology, there is little likelihood that his ring is penetrating Indonesia (and also Malaysia). This is even more the case if his operation is associated with the latest bomb terrors in Jakarta and its outskirts.

First, there have been hardly any reports of Osama's men targeting places of worship (particularly churches). He indeed has strong aversion to the U.S., which he considers an all-time protector and supporter of Israel in their slaughter of the Palestinians. Therefore, his group has to date aimed at U.S. and Israeli facilities (like U.S. embassies and cultural centers) in various countries. In other words, the terrorist acts that causes destruction or damage to churches, shops or government buildings are not typical of Osama's movement.

Second, Indonesia, similar to Malaysia, is a country with an Islamic majority that so far has maintained no diplomatic ties with Israel.

It is then difficult to understand why Osama should include Indonesia in his range of operation. If this is true, the moves in Indonesia could just be counter-productive to his long-term struggle. Anyway, Osama obviously needs the support of the international Muslim community.

There are possibilities that the Osama group may indeed have some connection with the jihad troops and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). A few militias have reportedly received military training in Afghanistan. But despite Afghanistan's notoriety as Osama's safe haven, relations between Osama and the Taliban government in Kabul have been tense -- with the U.S. successfully imposing pressure on the Talibans, leading to their pledge to surrender Osama to Washington. With this in mind, though some jihad and GAM members are said to have been trained in Afghanistan, they are not automatically part of the Osama ring.

Infiltration of foreign terrorists into the country is not to be ruled out either (as hinted by Hendropriyono and Sofjan Jacoeb). Nonetheless, it remains a question whether they are working for any international terrorist network (including Osama's), or whether they are merely receiving "orders" from certain domestic circles themselves.

A bigger riddle concerns the capacity of the Indonesian intelligence, which in the Soeharto era was so formidable (that it could even detect any student discussion at their lodgings), and which has seemingly become so worn down over the last three years. Making external factors a scapegoat is indeed easier though this attitude is contrary to the spirit of reform. Or, is the reform movement -- in the words of economist Dr. Syahrir -- now dead?

The writer is chairman of the Indonesian Society for Middle East Studies in Jakarta.