Take Note! Latest Gold Price Forecasts from 8 Global Institutions

Gold prices remain highly volatile, following the movement of oil prices and projections for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction. As of Monday (5/10/2026) at 06:29 WIB, gold prices rose slightly by 0.06% to US$4,144.83 per troy ounce.

This slight increase follows a 0.85% drop to US$4,142.34 per troy ounce last Friday, with gold prices plunging 3.4% throughout the previous week. While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during market turbulence, certain conditions are currently exerting pressure on its price. High oil prices could reignite inflation, rising bond yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive, and a stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US.

These pressures have prompted several major banks to lower their gold price projections, even though the long-term outlook for the precious metal remains positive. HSBC is the latest bank to cut its forecast, lowering its 2026 average gold price to US$4,490 per troy ounce from a previous US$4,560, and reducing its 2027 projection to US$4,825 from US$4,925. Despite this, HSBC expects central bank demand to provide support if prices fall near or below US$4,000 per troy ounce.

The path to US$5,000 is becoming steeper. After a massive rally in 2025 and hitting a record of approximately US$5,595 per troy ounce on 29 January 2026, the rally reversed. By 2 October, spot gold prices were around US$4,140, more than 2_0% below the January record.

Several banks still see opportunities for gold to break through US$5,000. Goldman Sachs projects a price of US$4,900 by the end of 2026, while UBS expects around US$4,600 by December before climbing towards US$5,000 in March 2027. Deutsche Bank has also set a US$5,000 target, and Morgan Stanley sees potential for gold to breach this level in 2027. However, Bank of America (BofA) presented a more bearish scenario, predicting gold could drop towards US$3,750 before recovering. BofA warns that if oil prices surge to US$150 per barrel, average gold prices in 2027 could be pressured down to around US$3,500.

Investor sentiment is also showing signs of retreat. According to CFTC data cited by Reuters, net long positions held by investment managers fell to their lowest level since late July in the week ending 22 September. Gold ETFs also saw an outflow of 1.6 tonnes, bringing total global holdings down to approximately 4,249 tonnes. Physical demand in Asia is also weakening; in China, buying interest declined ahead of the 1-7 October national holiday. On the supply side, Ghana has halted gold exports since August through GoldBod as the government prioritises strengthening foreign exchange reserves.

Despite short-term pressures, structural demand remains a pillar for gold prices. MKS PAMP strategist Nicky Shiels estimates that geopolitical factors and the diversification of national foreign exchange reserves provide a premium of approximately US$840 per troy ounce over gold prices. China also remains a major buyer, importing 1,077 tonnes of gold in the first eight months of 2026.

Crédit Agricole maintains a bullish view, forecasting gold could reach US$5,000 per troy ounce by December 2026. Although gold prices fell 6.64% throughout September, the bank views the precious metal as a primary safe-haven asset and a hedge against currency depreciation. However, reaching the US$5,000 target faces significant challenges as US dollar-based assets remain strong competitors for investor allocations.

As for silver (XAG), it remains under pressure after dropping more than 6% last week. High US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to limit silver’s recovery. As of Monday (5/10/2026) at 06:33 WIB, silver prices rose 0.61% to US$60.76 per troy ounce, following a 0.8% drop to US$60.39 per troy ounce last Friday.