Susilo's popularity dips: LSI

Susilo's popularity dips: LSI

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post/Jakarta

Only three days before the presidential election runoff, an
opinion poll on Friday showed a slight dip in the popularity of
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but that he was still likely to beat
Megawati Soekarnoputri by a landslide.

In its latest "quick" survey conducted after the last day of
the three-day campaign on Thursday, the Indonesian Survey
Institute (LSI) found that 52.6 percent of respondents preferred
Susilo as president for the 2004/2009 term to Megawati, who
enjoyed the support from 34.3 percent of the respondents.

The survey also found that 13.1 percent of respondents
remained undecided or would not participate in the poll.

"In comparison with our previous survey between Sept. 10 and
Sept. 20, the support for Susilo has remained stable, while the
level of support for Megawati has increased," the survey report
said.

The three-day campaign, marked mostly by intensive media
campaigning and televised dialogs, had a little impact on the
preferences of voters, the survey said.

In a previous survey published on Tuesday, the LSI found that
61.3 percent of respondents would vote for Susilo as against 32.7
percent for Megawati.

During the "quick" survey, the LSI interviewed 2,760
respondents across the country's 32 provinces. The margin of
error is 2 percent.

The survey predicted that little would change over the next
three days, as 75.2 percent of respondents said it was most
unlikely that they would change their preferences, while another
16.8 percent said it was unlikely they would change their views.

As in its previous surveys, the LSI underscored the inability
of the political parties to mobilize support for the candidates.

Megawati has the backing of her own Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Golkar Party and some other major
parties.

The PDI-P and Golkar are normally thought off as having
effective control over their rank-and-file down to the village
level.

The election results could also turn out different from the
scenario predicted by the polls as Megawati, in her capacity as
the incumbent president, still wields power over the state
bureaucracy.

As indicated by the experience of past polls, the pollsters
may also be overestimating the support that Susilo will garner.
In the first round of the presidential election, the pollsters,
including the LSI, predicted that Susilo would take over 40
percent of the vote.

The official results announced by the General Elections
Commission (KPU), however, gave Susilo only 33 percent of the
vote.

Meanwhile, another quick survey conducted by the People's
Voter Education Network (JPPR) found that 75 percent of
respondents were concerned about the possibility of state
officials taking sides in the election runoff.

The JPPR interviewed 20 district coordinators of over 45,000
observers in nine provinces who are responsible for collecting
information on the polls.