Susilo still red-hot favorite on 40.6% in new LSI survey

Susilo still red-hot favorite on 40.6% in new LSI survey

A. Junaidi, Jakarta

Rejecting accusations of partiality, the Indonesian Survey
Institute (LSI) has again placed the Democratic Party's cofounder
Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as the presidential election
front-runner in its latest poll.

Susilo secured 40.6 percent of the 1,216 respondents' votes,
defeating current President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who came a
distant second with 14.7 percent.

"Susilo and Megawati are the most likely winners in the first
round of the presidential election," the LSI's executive
director, Denny J.A. told a press conference on Tuesday.

The survey was conducted in 64 regencies and cities in 32
provinces between April 9 and April 15, using multistage random
sampling and direct interviews with a margin of error of around
2.9 percent.

Besides Susilo and Megawati, according to the survey, Gen.
(ret) Wiranto, the presidential candidate of the Golkar Party and
Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party secured 5.9 percent of
the respondents' votes respectively.

In April, based on another one of its survey, the LSI also
placed Susilo, the former coordinating minister for political and
security affairs, at the top of the list.

Denny, however, denied that the LSI was supporting Susilo so
as to further its own interests, saying that his institute was
funded by the Japan-Indonesia Cooperation Agency (JICA), with one
of the requirements being that the survey's findings should be
made public.

"We have received no money from Susilo or any other party. But
we do not forbid our members, in their personal capacities, to
have relationships with parties," he asserted.

Meanwhile, Indonesian expert from the Australian National
University, Harold Crouch, suggested that the public treat the
findings of the survey with caution.

"We should be careful. Indonesian politics are difficult to
predict -- liquid and quickly changing," said Crouch, who is also
a member of the LSI's board of trustees.

He regretted that the survey did not take the running mates of
the presidential candidates and the strength of their political
machines into account.

The survey was conducted before Megawati, chairwoman of the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), picked Hasyim
Muzadi, chairman of the country's largest Muslim organization
Nahdlatul Ulama, as her running mate.

Crouch predicted that Wiranto, the former chief of the
Indonesian Military (TNI), would secure a significant share of
the vote as a result of Golkar's well-oiled political machine.

"How effective will the Democratic Party as a political
machine for Susilo be?" he questioned.

Based on the result of the legislative election on April 5,
Golkar secured 21.58 million votes, the PDI-P 18.53 million
votes, the National Awakening Party 10.57 million votes, the
United Development Party 8.15 million votes and the Democratic
Party 7.45 million votes.