Susilo still red-hot favorite on 40.6% in new LSI survey

A. Junaidi, Jakarta

Rejecting accusations of partiality, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) has again placed the Democratic Party's cofounder Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as the presidential election front-runner in its latest poll.

Susilo secured 40.6 percent of the 1,216 respondents' votes, defeating current President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who came a distant second with 14.7 percent.

"Susilo and Megawati are the most likely winners in the first round of the presidential election," the LSI's executive director, Denny J.A. told a press conference on Tuesday.

The survey was conducted in 64 regencies and cities in 32 provinces between April 9 and April 15, using multistage random sampling and direct interviews with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent.

Besides Susilo and Megawati, according to the survey, Gen. (ret) Wiranto, the presidential candidate of the Golkar Party and Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party secured 5.9 percent of the respondents' votes respectively.

In April, based on another one of its survey, the LSI also placed Susilo, the former coordinating minister for political and security affairs, at the top of the list.

Denny, however, denied that the LSI was supporting Susilo so as to further its own interests, saying that his institute was funded by the Japan-Indonesia Cooperation Agency (JICA), with one of the requirements being that the survey's findings should be made public.

"We have received no money from Susilo or any other party. But we do not forbid our members, in their personal capacities, to have relationships with parties," he asserted.

Meanwhile, Indonesian expert from the Australian National University, Harold Crouch, suggested that the public treat the findings of the survey with caution.

"We should be careful. Indonesian politics are difficult to predict -- liquid and quickly changing," said Crouch, who is also a member of the LSI's board of trustees.

He regretted that the survey did not take the running mates of the presidential candidates and the strength of their political machines into account.

The survey was conducted before Megawati, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), picked Hasyim Muzadi, chairman of the country's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama, as her running mate.

Crouch predicted that Wiranto, the former chief of the Indonesian Military (TNI), would secure a significant share of the vote as a result of Golkar's well-oiled political machine.

"How effective will the Democratic Party as a political machine for Susilo be?" he questioned.

Based on the result of the legislative election on April 5, Golkar secured 21.58 million votes, the PDI-P 18.53 million votes, the National Awakening Party 10.57 million votes, the United Development Party 8.15 million votes and the Democratic Party 7.45 million votes.