Susilo must maintain his popularity

Muhammad Qodari, Jakarta

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, familiarly known as SBY, surprised many when he said, "I don't care about my popularity" (The Jakarta Post, Feb. 4). This is quite astonishing as SBY is the first Indonesian president to be elected through a direct election where the popularity of the candidates is the most important factor.

Does he no longer care about his popularity as he is already the president?

There are of course a number of possible reasons why President Susilo made the statement. Given the timing and context of the statement, we may take it to be a defense against the criticisms and abuse directed at him by a number of experts and politicians, who claimed that Susilo had failed to do a good job during his first 100 days in power.

The statement may also have been a defense -- or denial -- against the results of opinion polls conducted by a number of organizations to the effect that the President's satisfaction ratings had declined significantly since his inauguration on Oct. 20 last year. Two opinion polls worth citing here are those conducted by Kompas daily and the Indonesian Survey Institute.

Kompas published the findings of its polls held one month, two months and 100 days after SBY took power. These polls show that SBY's popularity has steadily declined over time.

Meanwhile, the polls conducted by the LSI paint a somewhat different picture. It is true that the public's job approval rating for the President has decreased significantly from approximately 80 percent in November to 67 percent in December last year. However, the figure was still much the same a month later, and a survey conducted by the Media Group in cooperation with the LSI in January 2005 showed that public satisfaction with SBY had even increased slightly to 69 percent.

It is also possible that the President wanted to show his resolve as a decision maker in running the government and country. By making the statement, he wanted people to know that even though his policies may cost him popularity, he will still press ahead regardless if he deems the policy to be necessary.

The upcoming increase in fuel prices could well turn out to be an example of this kind of unpalatable but necessary policy.

The recent decision to raise education standards by requiring students all over Indonesia to sit a standardized school leaving examination is another controversial issue the government faces.

To defend oneself against criticism is normal, not only for the ordinary man in the street, but also for a president. Trying to project firmness is a very good approach for a leader often accused of being hesitant, such as Susilo. But saying "I don't care about my popularity" in public is obviously not the best approach to political communication by a president.

Every political leader, particularly a president, must always be concerned about his popularity.

The experiences of Susilo's two immediate predecessors serve as good examples of how popularity matters. Indonesia's first semi-democratically elected president, Abdurrahman Wahid, or Gus Dur as he is familiarly known, did not rise to power by direct election, but the public cheered him anyway when he became president as he was well-known as a humanist, a moderate Muslim leader and something of a raconteur. But soon Gus Dur lost his popularity as he often made controversial utterances, indulged himself in too many foreign journey, frequently changed his Cabinet lineup and got involved in various scandals, most importantly, alleged involvement in the misuse of budget funds.

Gus Dur showed that he did not care about what people thought of him by often saying Gitu Aja Kok Repot, which literally means, "Why get upset over trivial matters?" At first, this sort of comment from Gus Dur was considered funny. Later on, however, people started to get annoyed. Gus Dur created more and more enemies among the political elite, who then proceeded to plot his downfall through an impeachment process in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). Some student groups also took to the streets demanding the resignation of the president.

Gus Dur's successor, President Megawati Soekarnoputri, differed in many ways from her former boss. But she resembled him in one crucial aspect: She did not care very much about popularity. This was shown by her aloof, non-communicative leadership style.

Megawati only started courting popularity as the presidential election drew near. She even changed her style after polls showed that her popularity had slumped compared to her challenger, Susilo, who was her own former senior security minister. She became more willing to talk to the public and tried to win the favor of journalists. But the changes were too little, too late for Megawati.

While there will be no more national elections for the immediate future, this does not mean than Susilo can afford to ignore his popularity ratings. Susilo comes from a party with a relatively a small number of seats in the House of Representatives. It is from the people Susilo must primarily seek his support. Support from the people is particularly important when a government wishes to implement controversial policies, such as fuel price hikes and the setting of higher national education standards. If the public oppose these policies and take to the streets, the opposition will find itself on solid ground in launching attacks on the government.

Susilo does not have to sacrifice his popularity in order to be a firm and resolute president. He can be firm as well as popular at the same time. He can do this provided that unpalatable but necessary policies are communicated properly to the public and the government offers compensatory packages to offset the adverse consequence that these policies may cause. A good president is one who is able to garner the support of the people. Susilo managed to do this during the presidential election campaign. Now he has to ensure that his popularity is maintained.

The writer is deputy executive director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).