Supply Disruptions Push Oil Prices Above US$107
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global oil prices are still holding in a hot zone. Trading on Wednesday morning (13/5/2026) showed a slight weakening, but prices remained at their highest levels in recent months as the market continues to be haunted by uncertainties surrounding the Iran war and threats of global supply disruptions.
According to Refinitiv on Wednesday (13/5/2026) at 09.30 WIB, Brent crude oil was at US$107.08 per barrel. This position dipped slightly by 0.64% from the previous close at US$107.77 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was recorded at US$101.56 per barrel, weakening 0.61% from Tuesday’s position at US$102.18 per barrel.
Although corrected this morning, the oil rally is still very much felt. In just the last three trading sessions, Brent has surged nearly 6%, from US$101.29 per barrel on 8 May to above US$107 per barrel. WTI has even jumped more than US$6 in the same period.
The market is now increasingly pessimistic about the chances of peace in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump stated that ceasefire talks with Iran are on “life support”. This statement came after negotiations stalled again due to Iran’s demands for an end to the war across all conflict fronts, the lifting of the US naval blockade, the restoration of Iranian oil exports, and compensation for war damages.
The situation is becoming more complicated as Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, a route typically used for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG trade. Reuters reported that Tehran is beginning to expand its influence in the region, including opening energy shipment deals with Pakistan and Iraq. Several other countries are said to be exploring similar patterns.
This condition has market players worried that supply disruptions will last much longer than initial estimates. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now predicts that the Strait of Hormuz will effectively be closed until the end of May. Previously, the closure assumption was only until April.
The EIA’s revision is quite aggressive. The agency estimates Middle East oil supply losses to reach 10.8 million barrels per day in May. This figure is up from the previous projection of 9.1 million barrels per day. Globally, world oil stocks are expected to shrink by 2.6 million barrels per day throughout this year. A month ago, the estimate was only around 300,000 barrels per day.
The market is facing large-scale supply pressures. Even Houlihan Lokey estimates that the global supply shortfall could reach 14 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco has also warned that oil market stability may not fully recover until 2027 if disruptions to exports through Hormuz continue.
On the other hand, US oil stocks are also thinning. A Reuters survey estimates that American crude oil inventories fell by around 2.1 million barrels last week. Fuel inventories are also expected to shrink. This condition thickens the bullish sentiment in the energy market.
However, high prices are starting to hit demand. The EIA has cut its projection for global oil consumption growth this year to just 200,000 barrels per day, down sharply from the previous estimate of 600,000 barrels per day. US petrol prices are also projected to rise to an average of US$3.88 per gallon this year.
The market is now awaiting the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday-Friday this week. This meeting is seen as important because China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil and has significant diplomatic influence in the conflict.