'Suicide terrorism to increase in 2003'

'Suicide terrorism to increase in 2003'

Agence France-Presse, Jakarta

The al-Qaeda terror network and its associate groups will
increasingly resort to suicide attacks against soft targets this
year because of their diminished resources, an analyst said
Thursday.

"Al-Qaeda's intention to attack has not diminished but its
capability to attack has suffered," said visiting Singapore-based
terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna.

"As such, the group is increasingly probing targets that can
be attacked with least effort and cost," he told AFP.

Gunaratna, the author of Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of
Terror, said al-Qaeda's preferred target would remain the United
States but it would only have the capability to attack U.S
allies.

"With al-Qaeda working with like-minded groups, the attacks
conducted by al-Qaeda's associate groups will pose a threat as
great as al-Qaeda," Gunaratna said.

"Furthermore, assassination will be used more frequently
although suicide bombings will be the most predominant form of
attack."

Attacks would likely focus on economic targets and cities, he
said, noting that al-Qaeda or its associate groups had already
killed German tourists in Tunisia, French naval technicians in
Pakistan, Australians and Westerners in Indonesia's Bali island
and Israelis in Kenya.

"Al-Qaeda finds it less costly to operate in parts of Asia,
Africa and the Middle East where there is lack of security
controls," Gunaratna said.

The Bali bombing killed more than 190 people, mostly
foreigners. The Jamaah Islamiyah regional militant network, which
has been linked to al-Qaeda, is widely accused of responsibility
for the attack.

Fifteen people have been arrested and 11 including two
Malaysians are still sought over the blast.

The U.S war on terror will force Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda to
decentralize further and rely on its global network of militant
Islamic groups, Gunaratna said.

Al-Qaeda will probably use non-sophisticated technology to
attack civilians and civilian infrastructure but choose symbolic
and prestigious targets for greater impact.

"With greater border controls, members and associate members
of al-Qaeda will use what can be readily purchased off the shelf
especially from pharmacies, chemist shops and hardware stores,"
the Sri Lankan-born author said.

Gunaratna said that with the loss of Afghanistan as a "theater
of jihad (holy struggle)," in the future terrorists entering the
West would have been trained not only in Afghanistan but also in
other places such as Chechnya.

He said al-Qaeda would continue to conduct operations against
Muslim rulers supporting the U.S-led "war on terror", including
the Pakistani and Afghan leadership.

A United Nations report released in December said al-Qaeda
remained a global threat to world peace and security despite
major blows to its infrastructure.