'Suicide terrorism to increase in 2003'

'Suicide terrorism to increase in 2003'

Agence France-Presse, Jakarta

The al-Qaeda terror network and its associate groups will increasingly resort to suicide attacks against soft targets this year because of their diminished resources, an analyst said Thursday.

"Al-Qaeda's intention to attack has not diminished but its capability to attack has suffered," said visiting Singapore-based terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna.

"As such, the group is increasingly probing targets that can be attacked with least effort and cost," he told AFP.

Gunaratna, the author of Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror, said al-Qaeda's preferred target would remain the United States but it would only have the capability to attack U.S allies.

"With al-Qaeda working with like-minded groups, the attacks conducted by al-Qaeda's associate groups will pose a threat as great as al-Qaeda," Gunaratna said.

"Furthermore, assassination will be used more frequently although suicide bombings will be the most predominant form of attack."

Attacks would likely focus on economic targets and cities, he said, noting that al-Qaeda or its associate groups had already killed German tourists in Tunisia, French naval technicians in Pakistan, Australians and Westerners in Indonesia's Bali island and Israelis in Kenya.

"Al-Qaeda finds it less costly to operate in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East where there is lack of security controls," Gunaratna said.

The Bali bombing killed more than 190 people, mostly foreigners. The Jamaah Islamiyah regional militant network, which has been linked to al-Qaeda, is widely accused of responsibility for the attack.

Fifteen people have been arrested and 11 including two Malaysians are still sought over the blast.

The U.S war on terror will force Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda to decentralize further and rely on its global network of militant Islamic groups, Gunaratna said.

Al-Qaeda will probably use non-sophisticated technology to attack civilians and civilian infrastructure but choose symbolic and prestigious targets for greater impact.

"With greater border controls, members and associate members of al-Qaeda will use what can be readily purchased off the shelf especially from pharmacies, chemist shops and hardware stores," the Sri Lankan-born author said.

Gunaratna said that with the loss of Afghanistan as a "theater of jihad (holy struggle)," in the future terrorists entering the West would have been trained not only in Afghanistan but also in other places such as Chechnya.

He said al-Qaeda would continue to conduct operations against Muslim rulers supporting the U.S-led "war on terror", including the Pakistani and Afghan leadership.

A United Nations report released in December said al-Qaeda remained a global threat to world peace and security despite major blows to its infrastructure.