Strong El Niño to Prolong South Sumatra Dry Season Until Late October

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has stated that the strong El Niño phenomenon is causing increasingly dry conditions in South Sumatra, with the peak of the dry season expected in August and September 2026. Head of the Class I Climatology Station for South Sumatra, Wandayantolis, said in Palembang on Tuesday that the current climatic conditions are also being influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, which has the potential to develop into a very strong event. In addition to El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon is also strengthening and affecting weather conditions in South Sumatra. This phenomenon causes a reduction in rainfall supply to the Sumatra region, making conditions feel drier from June, July, and into early August. The peak of the dry season in South Sumatra is predicted to occur from August to September. This condition requires attention as it can increase the risk of forest and land fires. However, if El Niño develops with very strong intensity, the onset of the rainy season could be delayed until late October or early November. ‘We should be entering the early rainy season by mid-October. But with the very strong intensity of El Niño, there is a potential for the rainy season to be delayed until the end of October or even early November,’ said Wandayantolis. Therefore, BMKG urges the public and all stakeholders to increase vigilance during August and September, especially in facing the drier weather conditions.