Strengthening IHSG and Rupiah Capital: No Fuel Price Hikes, WFH - Energy Policy

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to remain volatile in trading today, Wednesday (1/4/2026). For more details on today’s sentiment projections, see page 3 of this article.

The IHSG closed in the red zone again on Tuesday’s trading, correcting by 0.61% or falling 43.45 points to 7,048.22.

270 stocks rose, 435 fell, and 253 were unchanged. Transaction value reached Rp14.94 trillion, involving 25.73 billion shares in 1.72 million transactions.

Foreign investors were recorded conducting net selling actions again, with total outflows reaching Rp1.28 trillion.

Throughout yesterday’s trading, IHSG volatility was quite high. The IHSG started trading in the green zone but then reversed under pressure to the red zone until the close.

From the issuer side, PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) was the biggest contributor to the IHSG’s weakening, pressuring the index by 8.33 points.

Followed by PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN), which weakened 3.35% and contributed 6.38 points of weakening to the index. Meanwhile, PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) also pressured the index by 5.23 points in line with its 4.58% share price decline.

On the other hand, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) was the biggest supporter preventing deeper IHSG weakening, after its shares surged 6.72% and contributed 3.81 points to the index. After that, PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) and PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) each supported the index by 3.28 points and 2.96 points.

Turning to the rupiah exchange rate movement, the rupiah closed weakening against the US dollar (USD) again on Tuesday’s trading.

Although the rupiah opened strengthening at the start of trading. However, the Garuda currency reversed to weaken and moved in the range of Rp16,980-Rp16,998/USD throughout the session.

This condition is reflected in the performance of the US dollar index, which recorded a significant strengthening throughout March. The DXY is even heading towards its largest monthly gain since July 2025, with appreciation of around 2.9% this month. This indicates that demand for the US dollar remains very strong amid rising market concerns over global economic slowdown.

On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has actually dampened speculation of a near-term interest rate hike. He emphasised that the US central bank is still taking a wait-and-see approach and that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

That statement temporarily pressured short-term US government bond yields. However, it was not enough to weaken the dollar, as the US currency remained sought after as a safe-haven asset when global economic growth prospects deteriorate.

Turning to the bond market, the yield on Indonesia’s 10-year bonds was observed to rise by 0.53% to 6.884% at Tuesday’s close.

For information, strengthening bond yields indicate that market players are dumping government securities (SBN).

From the US stock market, Wall Street finally rallied in unison on Tuesday’s trading, or early Wednesday Indonesian time.

Stocks rose after the latest reports gave investors hope that the Iran war could end soon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index rose 1,125.37 points, or 2.49%, closing at 46,341.51. This rise occurred after unconfirmed reports mentioned that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is open to ending the war with certain guarantees.

The S&P 500 soared 2.91% to 6,528.52, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.83% to 21,590.63. These three indices recorded their best daily performance since May.

Pezeshkian previously made similar statements earlier this month via the X platform, that “the only way to end the war triggered by the Zionist regime and [US] is by recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of compensation, and strong international guarantees against future aggression.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump told his aides that he is willing to end the military conflict in the Middle East even though the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Meanwhile, the New York Post reported that Trump believes the Iran war is likely to end soon, with other countries leading efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The technology sector, which had been pressured since the conflict began, experienced broad gains. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) closed up more than 4%. Nvidia shares jumped 5.6%, and Microsoft rose 3.1%.

“Any step towards ending the war will be welcomed by the stock market, hence the relief rally. However, we are not entirely out of risk yet,” said Eric Diton, President of The Wealth Alliance, to CNBC International.

He added that essentially, if the oil issue is not resolved, the pressure will continue.

Brent crude oil prices remained high after Bloomberg reported that Iran attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters. The Dubai government media office stated there were no injuries and the safety of all 24 crew members was ensured.

Brent crude futures contracts closed up 4.94% at US$118.35 per barrel, the highest closing level since 16 June 2022. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell 1.46% to US$101.38 per barrel.

The Nasdaq index is still down more than 10% from its latest intraday peak. The Dow and S&P 500 are down more than 8% and 6% from their last highs, respectively.

Tuesday also marked the last day of the month. Throughout March, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%, its worst monthly performance since 2022. The Dow fell 5.4%, ending a 10-month upward trend. The Nasdaq weakened 4.8%.

On a quarterly basis, the three major indices also recorded declines. The Nasdaq led the weakening with a drop of more than 7%. The S&P 500 fell 4.6%, and the Dow weakened 3.6%.

However, the small-cap Russell 2000 index moved in the opposite direction, rising around 0.6%.