Stocks Removed from MSCI Potentially Under Pressure, Analysts Recommend Caution
A number of Indonesian stocks affected by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index rebalancing are likely to face selling pressure ahead of the index composition changes that take effect on 31 August 2026.
Equity Research Analyst at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, Abdul Azis Setyo Wibowo, said the selling pressure could be quite high, but tends to be selective and may peak towards the close of trading on 31 August 2026.
This is in line with portfolio adjustments by passive funds that track the MSCI index. Based on Bloomberg estimates, total passive outflows are estimated at around US$753 million.
Azis explained that of the total estimated outflows, around US$684 million comes from stocks in the Standard Cap category, while around US$68 million comes from the Small Cap category.
PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) is estimated to be the stock with the largest outflow pressure, at around US$407 million. Meanwhile, PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) could lose around US$177 million from the Standard Cap category.
However, after moving into the Small Cap category, CPIN is estimated to receive inflows of around US$50 million. As a result, CPIN’s net outflow is estimated at around US$127 million.
According to Azis, although the outflow value from stocks removed from the Small Cap category is relatively smaller, the pressure on prices can still be significant, especially for stocks with limited trading liquidity.
“Especially if the estimated fund outflow is far greater than the average daily transaction value,” he explained.
Several stocks that need to be watched include PT Bank Jago Tbk (ARTO), PT Medikaloka Hermina Tbk (HEAL), PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR), and PT Bukalapak.com Tbk (BUKA).
Nevertheless, Azis believes that the selling pressure will not entirely occur only on 31 August. Some investment managers and investors carrying out index arbitrage strategies are estimated to have adjusted their positions since the MSCI evaluation results were announced on 13 August 2026.
On the other hand, the index changes could also trigger a rotation of funds into several stocks that received a higher weighting. Stocks such as PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) could receive additional passive fund inflows.
“So this week’s pressure is most likely concentrated on certain stocks, not a broad sell-off across the entire IHSG,” said Azis.
After the technical pressure from the rebalancing subsides, stock movements will again depend on the fundamentals, valuation, and business prospects of each issuer.
Azis believes that fundamentally, a number of affected stocks still have varying prospects. GOTO, for example, recorded an improved performance with a net profit of around Rp607 billion in the first half of 2026, supported by an increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA) as well as growth in the financial technology and on-demand services businesses.
Meanwhile, HEAL still has positive prospects amid revenue growth. However, HEAL’s net profit in the first half of 2026 fell 14% year-on-year to Rp193 billion.
Among the affected stocks, Azis sees CPIN’s performance as the strongest. CPIN’s net profit in the first half of 2026 jumped 95% year-on-year to Rp3.7 trillion, supported by improved profitability across all business segments.
Therefore, Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia recommends a trading buy for CPIN with a target price of Rp3,150 per share.