State Budget Deficit Becomes a Serious Alarm for National Economic Stability
Fiscal pressures deepening on the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) are becoming a serious signal for the sustainability of the national economy. In the first two months of the fiscal year, the APBN deficit has reached Rp135.7 trillion. More alarmingly, this situation is accompanied by a contraction in state revenues of Rp94.3 trillion. This reflects significant liquidity pressures amid global uncertainties and weakening domestic economic fundamentals.
Member of DPR RI Commission XI from the Golkar Party faction, Erik Hermawan, assesses that this phenomenon indicates a structural imbalance in fiscal management.
“The widening deficit in a short time shows that our fiscal capacity is under pressure. This is not just a cyclical issue, but is heading towards structural pressures that must be responded to comprehensively,” he stated, quoted from a written statement received on Monday (6/4).
According to Erik, the most concerning indicator is the surge in the debt interest burden ratio to state revenues, particularly taxes. With the ratio entering the highly vulnerable category, most state revenues are absorbed for debt interest payments, not for productive spending. This implies a narrowing fiscal space for the government in carrying out allocation and distribution functions.
“When the APBN is mostly absorbed for debt servicing, the room for public investment becomes limited. This risks suppressing long-term growth,” he emphasised.
Furthermore, Erik highlighted the fiscal expansion strategy through stimulus and liquidity interventions, including the placement of Rp200 trillion in government funds in national banking. He stressed that this policy must be accompanied by effective transmission to the real sector. Without it, an increase in money supply could create structural inflationary pressures.
“If liquidity expansion is not balanced with output increases, we face the risk of demand-pull inflation or even hyperinflation in extreme scenarios,” he explained.
Erik also criticised the policy orientation that overly emphasises achieving economic growth targets without considering growth quality. He described debt-fueled growth as a real risk that could burden the APBN in the future.
In the context of the 2026 APBN, Erik highlighted the significant decline in Transfers to Regions (TKD) as a form of fiscal consolidation that could potentially cause fiscal shocks at the regional level. He assessed that this decline could reduce regional capacity in providing public services and hinder local economic innovation. “Centralised spending must be balanced with strengthening the role of regions. If not, there will be imbalances in development distribution,” he said.
In addition, he emphasised that macroeconomic assumptions such as the 5.4% growth target, rupiah exchange rate, and commodity prices must be prepared realistically and adaptively to global dynamics. Deviations from these assumptions can directly impact the APBN posture, both on the revenue and expenditure sides. Therefore, the credibility of fiscal policy greatly depends on the accuracy of planning and discipline in implementation.
Besides that, Erik also affirmed the importance of transforming fiscal management towards a more prudent, adaptive, and risk-based approach. He encouraged the optimisation of investment instruments outside the APBN to maintain the sustainability of development financing.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has added up to Rp100 trillion to the energy subsidy budget to anticipate the impact of Middle East conflicts, global oil prices, and the APBN deficit.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa estimates that energy subsidies could swell up to Rp100 trillion in line with rising global oil prices.
Therefore, he asked the public not to worry about the potential widening of the APBN deficit.
Airlangga explained that the government is studying coal export tax policies to capture potential windfall profits.
Executive Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), Esther Sri Astuti, stated that the discourse on widening the APBN deficit above 3% is realistic.
Indef assesses that the government needs to immediately reactivate electric vehicle incentives to dampen fiscal pressures due to the surge in global oil prices.
Governor of DKI Jakarta, Pramono Anung, affirmed that the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government is accelerating urban development transformation with three main pillars and requests synergy from the private sector.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that regional spending realisation is still sluggish at the 2025 Regional Inflation Control Coordination Meeting.