Start of the Week: Rupiah Weakens, Touching 17,661 per US Dollar
The Rupiah exchange rate in the spot market plummeted at the start of trading on Monday (18/5/2026). The Indonesian currency depreciated by 0.18 per cent to the level of Rp 17,628 per US Dollar. Pressure on the Rupiah exchange rate continued throughout the morning, reaching Rp 17,661 per US Dollar by 09:21 WIB.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi projects that the Rupiah will continue to move weakly within the range of Rp 17,590 to Rp 17,660 per US Dollar. “For the Rupiah, it is likely to be traded tomorrow, Monday, potentially weakening between Rp 17,590 and Rp 17,660. There is a high possibility of a 50-point depreciation,” Ibrahim stated when contacted on Sunday night (17/5/2026).
He cited the incident involving the seizure of a Chinese ship by Iran, which occurred during the US-China Summit, as a factor adding to global uncertainty and triggering market concerns regarding the stability of global energy routes. “The Strait of Hormuz issue remains a concern. Especially following the summit in China, Iran seized a Chinese vessel. This creates its own set of tensions,” he said.
These conditions have encouraged the strengthening of the US Dollar as a global safe-haven asset. Simultaneously, global crude oil prices are expected to continue rising, adding pressure to the Indonesian economy, which remains dependent on energy imports. Global oil prices recorded a sharp increase throughout last week. According to Reuters, Brent crude rose by 7.84 per cent weekly, closing at 109.26 US Dollars per barrel on Friday (15/5/2026) local time. In daily trading, Brent strengthened by 3.35 per cent, while WTI rose by 4.2 per cent.
The rise in oil prices will directly impact Indonesia’s import requirements, as Indonesian oil imports reach approximately 1.5 million barrels, necessitating large amounts of US Dollar supplies. “Crude oil prices will continue to rise, impacting the domestic economy, particularly regarding the issue of imports; as I always say, the oil import volume is so large at 1.5 million barrels,” he explained.
In addition to energy import needs, pressure on the Rupiah also stems from corporate dividend distributions and the maturity of foreign debts that require foreign exchange. At the same time, there are indications that some members of the public are beginning to shift their savings from the Rupiah into foreign currencies.