Stability and reform must be balanced

Stability and reform must be balanced

Hoang Ngoc Nguyen analyses the political leadership profile arising out of Vietnam's Eighth Party Congress.

Notwithstanding the current triumvirate leadership of Secretary-General Do Muoi, President Le Duc Anh and Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet surviving the Eighth Party Congress of the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP), which convened in Hanoi in the last days of June, the Congress can still go down in Vietnamese history as one where vital change occurred, reflecting an intense concern by the country's ruling party with two crucial national issues: the continuation of economic reforms and political stability.

The Party Congress ended months of speculation by foreign observers about a major change in the top brass of the party and the pace of renovation. Those who had expected to see newer and younger faces in the leadership of the VCP were not totally disappointed: two members of the new Politburo are 47 years old, a relatively young age. And more knowledgeable people would argue that this is the best outcome that could be anticipated from a party which must strike a balance between the call for change and the need for stability.

The Politburo is now enlarged from 17 to 19 members, with nine new faces having been introduced (Professor Nguyen Dinh Tu died of a heart attack shortly after being elected for the first time to the Politburo). Truong Tan Sang, the newly-elected secretary of Ho Chi Minh City's party executive committee, and Nguyen Tan Dung, the former party secretary of the southernmost province of Kien Giang and now a deputy minister of interior, are the two 47- year-olds.

Commitment to economic reforms has been reconfirmed, bringing a sigh of relief from many foreign investors who had been uncertain amid reports of a more vocal opposition to an accelerated freeing-up of the economy.

Meanwhile, the nation's aging leaders are still at the helm of the VCP leadership, reinforcing at least the trust that unity and stability in the party can still be assured following abortive attempts to frustrate the well-established order of the party.

Nearly two months before the Party Congress, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledged the expulsion from the Politburo of a key member, Nguyen Ha Phan, from the southern province of Can Tho, who was widely regarded as the spokesperson of the "conservative" faction in the Party. Phan had long been rumored as being the strongest candidate for the seat of Prime Minister.

Also out with Phan was Dao Duy Tung, from Hanoi, ranked fourth in the Politburo hierarchy. He was also seen as a conservative ideologue, seeking a stronger party leadership, subordination of the government to the party's control, and a slowdown in the pace of economic reforms.

Long before the Eighth Party Congress, the story was that the collective leadership, comprising Secretary General Muoi, President Le Duc Anh and Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, would step down, paving the way for a contest by a host of political aspirants, including generals, conservatives and liberals within the party.

With the departure of these two key men, the traditional balance of power in the party, which has often been characterized by representation of the three main regions of the nation (north, central and south Vietnam) and of three main factions (liberal, conservative and the military) has become too delicate not to maintain the three incumbent leaders at the top.

But it is also obvious that the party has tried its best to live up to its pre-Congress pledges voiced by Hong Ha, a spokesman of the party at a news conference in mid-April: the leadership will comprise all generations and will be formed in a way to ensure continuation of the party's political and economic line.

Among those who departed the Politburo were Minister of Interior Bui Thien Ngo, known to have submitted his resignation some time ago; Ho Chi Minh City Party's ex-secretary Vo Tran Chi, who ceded power to the younger and more dynamic Sang; the former chairman of the Central Party's Organization and Personnel Committee, Le Phuoc Tho; the head of the Party's Inspection Committee, Do Quang Thang; and the head of the People's Mobilization Committee, Vu Oanh.

The new faces introduced into the Politburo as well as the new rankings of the organization highlight the two top concerns of the party: maintaining political stability as the national economy is increasingly exposed to changes and international integration, and continuation of economic reforms.

In the Politburo, there are six members directly related to national defense and security, including the President himself; Lt. Gen. Le Kha Phieu, the political commissary of the People's Armed Forces; Gen. Doan Khue, the minister of defense; Gen. Pham Van Tra, the newly promoted commander of the joint Chiefs-of- Staff; and two interior deputy ministers, Nguyen Tan Dung and Le Minh Huong.

The economic front has been strengthened with the inclusion not only of old hands like Deputy Prime Minister Phan Van Khai (ranked seventh), and Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cam (ranked eighth), but also freshmen like Deputy Prime Minister Tran Duc Luong (ranked 12th) and Sang (ranked 14th).

Since it is widely believed that the three top leaders of the Politburo will be caretakers only until the mid-term Party Congress (scheduled in 1998), the rankings in the Politburo as well as the introduction of new faces are important, indicating more than ever in the past, that the VCP is giving the choice of successors much attention. For instance, Nong Duc Manh, the chairman of the National Assembly, is now placed only after the triumvirate leadership. Phieu, entering the Politburo only in 1994, has climbed to fifth position, even higher than Khue, who is ranked sixth. New members like Dung, Sang, Tra, and Huong are most likely to hold senior positions in the new cabinet of Prime Minister Kiet to be announced later this year.

For the first time, a woman has been elected to the Politburo; Nguyen Thi Xuan My. Along with other members like Nguyen Duc Binh, Pham The Duyet, Nguyen Van An, Le Xuan Tung, she is likely to assume party functional responsibilities.

A major reform of the party centered on the disappearance of the nine-member Secretariat of the Central Executive Committee, replaced by a standing board of the Politburo comprising only five members, namely Muoi, Anh, Kiet, Phieu and Dung. The establishment of this body will naturally strengthen the leadership of the Politburo, which will now have to play an "executive" role within the party. On the other hand, leadership power is more centralized in fewer hands with a deeper concern for national security and political stability.

Sources close to the VCP have disclosed that the new leadership of the Party Congress, only the eighth in the party's 65-year history, has been worked out to ensure compliance with both the traditional "wide-representation" formula of the party and the expectation of local party delegations, the election of which in many cases had been "beyond expectation", reflecting a desire for change of party members across the nation.

Hoang Ngoc Nguyen is an analyst based in Ho Chi Minh City.