Stability and reform must be balanced

Stability and reform must be balanced

Hoang Ngoc Nguyen analyses the political leadership profile
arising out of Vietnam's Eighth Party Congress.

Notwithstanding the current triumvirate leadership of
Secretary-General Do Muoi, President Le Duc Anh and Prime
Minister Vo Van Kiet surviving the Eighth Party Congress of the
Vietnam Communist Party (VCP), which convened in Hanoi in the
last days of June, the Congress can still go down in Vietnamese
history as one where vital change occurred, reflecting an intense
concern by the country's ruling party with two crucial national
issues: the continuation of economic reforms and political
stability.

The Party Congress ended months of speculation by foreign
observers about a major change in the top brass of the party and
the pace of renovation. Those who had expected to see newer and
younger faces in the leadership of the VCP were not totally
disappointed: two members of the new Politburo are 47 years old,
a relatively young age. And more knowledgeable people would argue
that this is the best outcome that could be anticipated from a party
which must strike a balance between the call for change and the
need for stability.

The Politburo is now enlarged from 17 to 19 members, with nine
new faces having been introduced (Professor Nguyen Dinh Tu died
of a heart attack shortly after being elected for the first time
to the Politburo). Truong Tan Sang, the newly-elected secretary
of Ho Chi Minh City's party executive committee, and Nguyen Tan
Dung, the former party secretary of the southernmost province of
Kien Giang and now a deputy minister of interior, are the two 47-
year-olds.

Commitment to economic reforms has been reconfirmed, bringing
a sigh of relief from many foreign investors who had been
uncertain amid reports of a more vocal opposition to an
accelerated freeing-up of the economy.

Meanwhile, the nation's aging leaders are still at the helm of
the VCP leadership, reinforcing at least the trust that unity and
stability in the party can still be assured following abortive
attempts to frustrate the well-established order of the party.

Nearly two months before the Party Congress, the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs acknowledged the expulsion from the Politburo of a
key member, Nguyen Ha Phan, from the southern province of Can
Tho, who was widely regarded as the spokesperson of the
"conservative" faction in the Party. Phan had long been rumored
as being the strongest candidate for the seat of Prime Minister.

Also out with Phan was Dao Duy Tung, from Hanoi, ranked fourth
in the Politburo hierarchy. He was also seen as a conservative
ideologue, seeking a stronger party leadership, subordination of
the government to the party's control, and a slowdown in the pace
of economic reforms.

Long before the Eighth Party Congress, the story was that the
collective leadership, comprising Secretary General Muoi,
President Le Duc Anh and Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet, would step
down, paving the way for a contest by a host of political
aspirants, including generals, conservatives and liberals within
the party.

With the departure of these two key men, the traditional
balance of power in the party, which has often been characterized
by representation of the three main regions of the nation (north,
central and south Vietnam) and of three main factions (liberal,
conservative and the military) has become too delicate not to
maintain the three incumbent leaders at the top.

But it is also obvious that the party has tried its best to
live up to its pre-Congress pledges voiced by Hong Ha, a
spokesman of the party at a news conference in mid-April: the
leadership will comprise all generations and will be formed in a
way to ensure continuation of the party's political and economic
line.

Among those who departed the Politburo were Minister of
Interior Bui Thien Ngo, known to have submitted his resignation
some time ago; Ho Chi Minh City Party's ex-secretary Vo Tran Chi,
who ceded power to the younger and more dynamic Sang; the former
chairman of the Central Party's Organization and Personnel
Committee, Le Phuoc Tho; the head of the Party's Inspection
Committee, Do Quang Thang; and the head of the People's
Mobilization Committee, Vu Oanh.

The new faces introduced into the Politburo as well as the new
rankings of the organization highlight the two top concerns of
the party: maintaining political stability as the national
economy is increasingly exposed to changes and international
integration, and continuation of economic reforms.

In the Politburo, there are six members directly related to
national defense and security, including the President himself;
Lt. Gen. Le Kha Phieu, the political commissary of the People's
Armed Forces; Gen. Doan Khue, the minister of defense; Gen. Pham
Van Tra, the newly promoted commander of the joint Chiefs-of-
Staff; and two interior deputy ministers, Nguyen Tan Dung and
Le Minh Huong.

The economic front has been strengthened with the inclusion
not only of old hands like Deputy Prime Minister Phan Van Khai
(ranked seventh), and Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cam (ranked
eighth), but also freshmen like Deputy Prime Minister Tran Duc
Luong (ranked 12th) and Sang (ranked 14th).

Since it is widely believed that the three top leaders of the
Politburo will be caretakers only until the mid-term Party Congress
(scheduled in 1998), the rankings in the Politburo as well as the
introduction of new faces are important, indicating more than ever
in the past, that the VCP is giving the choice of successors much
attention. For instance, Nong Duc Manh, the chairman of the
National Assembly, is now placed only after the triumvirate
leadership. Phieu, entering the Politburo only in 1994, has
climbed to fifth position, even higher than Khue, who is ranked
sixth. New members like Dung, Sang, Tra, and Huong are most
likely to hold senior positions in the new cabinet of Prime
Minister Kiet to be announced later this year.

For the first time, a woman has been elected to the Politburo;
Nguyen Thi Xuan My. Along with other members like Nguyen Duc
Binh, Pham The Duyet, Nguyen Van An, Le Xuan Tung, she is likely
to assume party functional responsibilities.

A major reform of the party centered on the disappearance of
the nine-member Secretariat of the Central Executive Committee,
replaced by a standing board of the Politburo comprising only five
members, namely Muoi, Anh, Kiet, Phieu and Dung. The
establishment of this body will naturally strengthen the
leadership of the Politburo, which will now have to play an
"executive" role within the party. On the other hand, leadership
power is more centralized in fewer hands with a deeper concern
for national security and political stability.

Sources close to the VCP have disclosed that the new
leadership of the Party Congress, only the eighth in the party's
65-year history, has been worked out to ensure compliance with
both the traditional "wide-representation" formula of the party
and the expectation of local party delegations, the election of
which in many cases had been "beyond expectation", reflecting a
desire for change of party members across the nation.

Hoang Ngoc Nguyen is an analyst based in Ho Chi Minh City.