Spratly dispute rattles equilibrium

Spratly dispute rattles equilibrium

By Jane Macartney

BEIJING (Reuter): China's recent flurry of construction in the
disputed Spratly Islands was intended to test rather than inflame
other claimants to the South China Sea chain, diplomats and
analysts said.

Western diplomats said Chinese activity in the archipelago of
scattered reefs and atolls was unlikely to erupt in clashes among
the six nations that claim all or part of the Spratlys.

"Elements in China's armed forces think they should stake
their claim every now and then to give reminders to others," said
one Western diplomat based in Beijing.

Manila has railed against Beijing for weeks, accusing China of
building naval structures on disputed Mischief Reef, one of the
Spratly islets it claims.

The Philippine navy has seized five Chinese fishing boats it
says were operating in disputed waters and dynamited several
Chinese markers on the reefs.

"China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha (Spratly)
islands, it has every right to set up markers like that there," a
Foreign Ministry spokesman said last Thursday.

He demanded prompt release of the boats and their crews.
Diplomats said China wanted to build more structures there to
protect its shipping and appeared to have deliberately chosen
reefs claimed by its militarily weakest rival.

The Spratlys' 190 mostly barren isles and partly submerged
reefs are regarded as potentially rich in oil and gas. Malaysia,
Brunei, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

"China probably calculated which island to choose," the
Beijing-based diplomat said. "They are not in a position to
expand to edge others out because militarily they can't and
politically that would be too strong a step at this stage."

China's fledgling blue-water navy still lacks the strength and
logistical depth to fight for long at such a distance from its
mainland, military analysts said.

Taiwan raised temperatures in the dispute, pledging to send
gunboats on Friday on an eight-day patrol of the area.

Beijing responded carefully to the action by an island it
regards as a renegade province, underscoring the delicacy of
handling a claimant it sees as falling under its sovereignty.

"Both sides should have a consistent stand," the Foreign
Ministry spokesman said without elaboration.

China was in no hurry to settle the dispute, diplomats and
analysts said.

"They are prepared to wait it out," said one. "They are now
thinking in terms of 2050 and not 2000. They think another 20 or
30 years is not long when you have thousands of years of
history."

China has repeatedly rebuffed calls for a regional conference
to sort out the claims, saying these could be resolved only
through bilateral talks.

In Hanoi last November, Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin
agreed to begin talks with Vietnam on the Spratlys.

China and Vietnam fought an armed clash over the islands in
1988 and have wrangled ever since over oil exploration.

Diplomats in Hanoi said Vietnam's planned entry to the
Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July could
hamper talks by creating a bloc that might act with some
solidarity against China.

The Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei are ASEAN members.

Hanoi issued a mild, indirect rebuke to Taiwan over its
planned naval patrol and said rivals should settle the
sovereignty issue through talks.

Malaysia said it hoped claimants would solve the disputes
without force. It has had a small naval detachment and military
airstrip on Layang-Layang island since 1992. A local company has
developed a diving resort with chalets there.

Manila has troops on eight islands, an airstrip, and has
beefed up its meager forces on Palawan island after Chinese
intrusion into what it calls the Kalayaan (Freedom) islands
portion of the Spratlys.