Spratly dispute rattles equilibrium

Spratly dispute rattles equilibrium

By Jane Macartney

BEIJING (Reuter): China's recent flurry of construction in the disputed Spratly Islands was intended to test rather than inflame other claimants to the South China Sea chain, diplomats and analysts said.

Western diplomats said Chinese activity in the archipelago of scattered reefs and atolls was unlikely to erupt in clashes among the six nations that claim all or part of the Spratlys.

"Elements in China's armed forces think they should stake their claim every now and then to give reminders to others," said one Western diplomat based in Beijing.

Manila has railed against Beijing for weeks, accusing China of building naval structures on disputed Mischief Reef, one of the Spratly islets it claims.

The Philippine navy has seized five Chinese fishing boats it says were operating in disputed waters and dynamited several Chinese markers on the reefs.

"China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha (Spratly) islands, it has every right to set up markers like that there," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said last Thursday.

He demanded prompt release of the boats and their crews. Diplomats said China wanted to build more structures there to protect its shipping and appeared to have deliberately chosen reefs claimed by its militarily weakest rival.

The Spratlys' 190 mostly barren isles and partly submerged reefs are regarded as potentially rich in oil and gas. Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

"China probably calculated which island to choose," the Beijing-based diplomat said. "They are not in a position to expand to edge others out because militarily they can't and politically that would be too strong a step at this stage."

China's fledgling blue-water navy still lacks the strength and logistical depth to fight for long at such a distance from its mainland, military analysts said.

Taiwan raised temperatures in the dispute, pledging to send gunboats on Friday on an eight-day patrol of the area.

Beijing responded carefully to the action by an island it regards as a renegade province, underscoring the delicacy of handling a claimant it sees as falling under its sovereignty.

"Both sides should have a consistent stand," the Foreign Ministry spokesman said without elaboration.

China was in no hurry to settle the dispute, diplomats and analysts said.

"They are prepared to wait it out," said one. "They are now thinking in terms of 2050 and not 2000. They think another 20 or 30 years is not long when you have thousands of years of history."

China has repeatedly rebuffed calls for a regional conference to sort out the claims, saying these could be resolved only through bilateral talks.

In Hanoi last November, Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin agreed to begin talks with Vietnam on the Spratlys.

China and Vietnam fought an armed clash over the islands in 1988 and have wrangled ever since over oil exploration.

Diplomats in Hanoi said Vietnam's planned entry to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July could hamper talks by creating a bloc that might act with some solidarity against China.

The Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei are ASEAN members.

Hanoi issued a mild, indirect rebuke to Taiwan over its planned naval patrol and said rivals should settle the sovereignty issue through talks.

Malaysia said it hoped claimants would solve the disputes without force. It has had a small naval detachment and military airstrip on Layang-Layang island since 1992. A local company has developed a diving resort with chalets there.

Manila has troops on eight islands, an airstrip, and has beefed up its meager forces on Palawan island after Chinese intrusion into what it calls the Kalayaan (Freedom) islands portion of the Spratlys.