S'pore-Malaysia debate becomes election issue

S'pore-Malaysia debate becomes election issue

By Ajoy Sen

SINGAPORE (Reuter): Malaysia and neighboring Singapore seem to be stoking a row over possible reunification as an issue in elections both face, political analysts and economists say.

They said while reunification was only a remote possibility, the debate could lead to a more formal relationship between the two members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations which groups them with Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

"Singapore, and particularly Prime Minister Goh (Chok Tong), brought about the subject in the hope of using it as an election issue," said Bruce Gale, Regional Manager, Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd, Singapore.

But Goh has said the issues were more mundane such as the cost of living, health care, car prices and the upgrading of housing.

Singapore must hold a general election by April. Malaysia's ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party faces internal elections this year, important because its leaders run the government.

Gale said Malaysia's sharp responses on the issue at least partly reflected the fact that UMNO was also facing an election.

"I think the present constraint in relations between the two countries is a passing phase," said one economist at a local securities house who did not want to be named.

"This is all because ruling parties in both the countries are facing elections and it is always convenient to use an external source as a reference point," he said.

The row began in July when Singapore patriarch Lee Kuan Yew raised the possibility of eventual reunification if Malaysia committed itself to meritocracy. Malaysia has a policy of giving advantages to indigenous Malays, who it says need to catch up economically with ethnic Chinese.

That was precisely the issue that caused the split in 1965 between ethnic Chinese-majority Singapore and Kuala Lumpur after two years together in the Malaysian Federation.

Goh added fuel to Malaysian ire when he raised the subject in August, saying Singapore could be forced to ask Malaysia to take it back, on Malaysian terms, if the republic's economic competitiveness faltered.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said Singapore leaders were using Kuala Lumpur as a "bogeyman" in an election campaign effectively under way, a charge Goh denied.

Singapore's Straits Times quoted him as telling reporters he was not trying to scare anyone. "If we have to use Malaysia to campaign as a bogeyman, that will have no effect," he said.

Gale said the incident "demonstrates once again the way in which the Singapore government has underestimated how citizens of a foreign country can push their government to protest to an action by Singapore," referring to a diplomatic row that erupted last year between Manila and Singapore.

The hanging of Filipina maid Flor Contemplacion in March 1995 for double murder triggered protests in the Philippines, where many people believed she was innocent. Hundreds of Singaporean flags were torched as a result.

The furore nearly caused a rupture between the Philippines and Singapore. Normal ties were only restored in January.

Analysts said a remerger was extremely unlikely as neither side could ever be comfortable with the other, a view reflected in the letter pages of The Straits Times.

"Let us not put the cart before the horse," wrote one reader, S.K. Chakravarti. "Singapore is an independent sovereign nation and will remain as such forever."

"The debate, however, highlights a larger issue of Singapore's search for a viable economic role in the future," said Mukul Asher, associate professor of economics and public policy at the National University of Singapore.

"This is because Malaysia and other ASEAN countries have narrowed the gap, particularly in physical and financial infrastructure and in trade logistics. Also, Singapore's internal resource and demographic constraints on its future growth have become much clearer," Asher said.

"Increased competition implied by the narrowing of the gap and the need to move to the next stage of development by the ASEAN countries will also have implications for the form and the structure of ASEAN itself," he said.

"ASEAN may need to consider more formal and rule-based cooperation in the future," Asher added.