S'pore-Malaysia debate becomes election issue

S'pore-Malaysia debate becomes election issue

By Ajoy Sen

SINGAPORE (Reuter): Malaysia and neighboring Singapore seem to
be stoking a row over possible reunification as an issue in
elections both face, political analysts and economists say.

They said while reunification was only a remote possibility,
the debate could lead to a more formal relationship between the
two members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
which groups them with Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines,
Thailand and Vietnam.

"Singapore, and particularly Prime Minister Goh (Chok Tong),
brought about the subject in the hope of using it as an election
issue," said Bruce Gale, Regional Manager, Political and Economic
Risk Consultancy Ltd, Singapore.

But Goh has said the issues were more mundane such as the cost
of living, health care, car prices and the upgrading of housing.

Singapore must hold a general election by April. Malaysia's
ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party faces
internal elections this year, important because its leaders run
the government.

Gale said Malaysia's sharp responses on the issue at least
partly reflected the fact that UMNO was also facing an election.

"I think the present constraint in relations between the two
countries is a passing phase," said one economist at a local
securities house who did not want to be named.

"This is all because ruling parties in both the countries are
facing elections and it is always convenient to use an external
source as a reference point," he said.

The row began in July when Singapore patriarch Lee Kuan Yew
raised the possibility of eventual reunification if Malaysia
committed itself to meritocracy. Malaysia has a policy of giving
advantages to indigenous Malays, who it says need to catch up
economically with ethnic Chinese.

That was precisely the issue that caused the split in 1965
between ethnic Chinese-majority Singapore and Kuala Lumpur after
two years together in the Malaysian Federation.

Goh added fuel to Malaysian ire when he raised the subject in
August, saying Singapore could be forced to ask Malaysia to take
it back, on Malaysian terms, if the republic's economic
competitiveness faltered.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said Singapore
leaders were using Kuala Lumpur as a "bogeyman" in an election
campaign effectively under way, a charge Goh denied.

Singapore's Straits Times quoted him as telling reporters he
was not trying to scare anyone. "If we have to use Malaysia to
campaign as a bogeyman, that will have no effect," he said.

Gale said the incident "demonstrates once again the way in
which the Singapore government has underestimated how citizens of
a foreign country can push their government to protest to an
action by Singapore," referring to a diplomatic row that erupted
last year between Manila and Singapore.

The hanging of Filipina maid Flor Contemplacion in March 1995
for double murder triggered protests in the Philippines, where
many people believed she was innocent. Hundreds of Singaporean
flags were torched as a result.

The furore nearly caused a rupture between the Philippines and
Singapore. Normal ties were only restored in January.

Analysts said a remerger was extremely unlikely as neither
side could ever be comfortable with the other, a view reflected
in the letter pages of The Straits Times.

"Let us not put the cart before the horse," wrote one reader,
S.K. Chakravarti. "Singapore is an independent sovereign nation
and will remain as such forever."

"The debate, however, highlights a larger issue of Singapore's
search for a viable economic role in the future," said Mukul
Asher, associate professor of economics and public policy at the
National University of Singapore.

"This is because Malaysia and other ASEAN countries have
narrowed the gap, particularly in physical and financial
infrastructure and in trade logistics. Also, Singapore's internal
resource and demographic constraints on its future growth have
become much clearer," Asher said.

"Increased competition implied by the narrowing of the gap and
the need to move to the next stage of development by the ASEAN
countries will also have implications for the form and the
structure of ASEAN itself," he said.

"ASEAN may need to consider more formal and rule-based
cooperation in the future," Asher added.