Soymeal demand up in China and SE Asia

Soymeal demand up in China and SE Asia

SINGAPORE (Reuter): Soymeal demand in China and Southeast Asia
will grow at an explosive rate in coming years due to increasing
consumption of poultry, pork and beef in the region, a senior
analyst said yesterday.

China has gone from exporting 2.41 million tons of soymeal in
the 1990/91 October/September marketing year to importing an
estimated 2.7 million tons in the 1996/97 season, John Baize, the
president of a U.S.-based oilseeds consulting company, said.

China also imported about 1.7 million tons of soybeans in
1996/97 against exports of 1.33 million tons in 1989/90.

"I don't see any reason why Chinese (soymeal imports) will not
expand," Baize told a feeds conference in Singapore. "China will
have the greatest impact on the global market."

"Because of the growing capability of the average Chinese
family to afford better diets, there has been a virtual explosion
in Chinese demand for and production of pork and poultry," he
said in a report.

Chinese poultry production jumped 17.7 percent to 11.3 million
tons in 1996 from 9.6 million tons in 1995.

Southeast Asian demand has also grown sharply, led by
Indonesia and the Philippines, whose combined population reaches
around 270 million people, Baize said.

Soymeal imports in the region are expected to hit 3.365
million tons in 1996/97 against 989,000 tons in 1989/90.

"Now with ASEAN's free trade area, that will even pick up,"
Baize said in referring to the plan by ASEAN to trim tariffs on a
wide range of products to a minimum of five percent by 2000.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) groups
Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand
and Vietnam.

Another country where growth could suddenly mushroom rapidly
is India, where trade liberalization and rising affluence may
well turn the country into an importer of soymeal.

"India promises to be over the next 10 years, the next China
as far as soymeal consumption is concerned," Baize said.

Trade liberalization has lowered tariff barriers on feed and
has allowed people "to consume more meat and poultry which
stimulates global demand for mixed feeds," Baize said.

Most of the upsurge in demand has benefited Brazil and
Argentina, with Baize estimating that Brazilian farmers will
probably export up to seven million tons of soybeans this year
against 3.5 million tons last year.

"The U.S. is not capturing that growth. It has been South
America that has captured most of the growth in soybean meal. The
place that is responsible for most of that is Asia."

Soybean output in Brazil this year is expected to hit 26.5
million tons, while production in Argentina should hit 12.5
million tons.