Southeast Asia swings narrowly back to China over US if forced to choose: Survey

Southeast Asia swings narrowly back to China over US if forced to choose: Survey

Released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Tuesday (Apr 7), the survey findings place Beijing back in front after trailing Washington last year, reflecting shifting regional sentiment amid intensifying great power competition.

SINGAPORE: A slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia would align with China over the United States if forced to choose sides, an annual think tank survey has found - the latest swing in a region where sentiment has oscillated between the two powers in recent years.

A total of 52 per cent chose China compared to the US (48 per cent), according to the State of Southeast Asia 2026 report released on Tuesday (Apr 7), which posed a “hypothetical forced choice” between the two strategic rivals.

The latest findings place Beijing back in front after trailing Washington from 2020 to 2023 and again in 2025 (47.7 per cent), having briefly taken the lead in 2024 (50.5 per cent).

The question was first asked in the 2020 edition of the survey.

“The results underscore how finely balanced regional sentiment remains, with relatively small margins separating the two superpowers across successive editions of the survey,” the report stated.

“The relatively narrow regional margin (52–48) reflects a deeply divided strategic landscape rather than a decisive shift toward one pole,” it added.

Now in its 8th year, the annual report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore examines regional perceptions on strategic issues and the influence of major powers.

This year’s survey was conducted between Jan 5 and Feb 20, with a total of 2,008 respondents from all 11 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including Timor-Leste, which joined the grouping in October 2025.

Respondents included researchers, media representatives, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), government officials, private sector representatives and members of civil society.

UNEVEN REGIONAL SUPPORT

With a combined population of around 680 million and growing economic heft, Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly crucial to both American and Chinese interests.

Beneath the headline result, responses to the survey’s forced-choice question varied widely across Southeast Asia, reflecting differing national perspectives.

Support for aligning with China was particularly strong in Indonesia (80.1 per cent), Malaysia (68 per cent), Singapore (66.3 per cent), Timor-Leste (58.2 per cent), Thailand (55 per cent) and Brunei (53.5 per cent).

In contrast, support for the US remained strong in the Philippines (76.8 per cent), its ally, as well as in Myanmar (61.4 per cent), Cambodia (61 per cent) and Vietnam (59.2 per cent). Laos saw an almost even split.

“Countries with deep economic interdependence with China appear more inclined toward Beijing, whereas traditional security partners of the US, particularly the Philippines, remain firmly aligned with Washington,” the report said.

“The results suggest that while respondents continue to favour neutrality in principle, structural and economic realities may shape alignment preferences if compelled to choose.”

At the same time, expectations of improvement in relations with China are gaining ground across ASEAN, the report noted.

When asked how they see their country’s relations with China evolving in the next three years, a majority of respondents (55.6 per cent) believe they will “improve or improve significantly”.

“This marks a generally optimistic outlook toward bilateral trajectories with Beijing, despite persistent strategic tensions in parts of the region,” the report stated, with confidence particularly strong in Timor-Leste, Laos, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Cambodia.

The results suggest that China continues to be seen as an “indispensable partner” whose influence is expected to “remain constructive or at least manageable”, the report added.

Yet the data also reveals “clear divergences” within ASEAN, the report said. It cited the Philippines as a “notable outlier”, with a majority (55 per cent) foreseeing relations “worsening or worsening significantly” amid ongoing frictions in the South China Sea.

Even for respondents who view relations with China as improving, key factors could still potentially erode their positive perceptions of the world’s second-largest economy, the survey found.

China’s interference in the domestic affairs of ASEAN member states emerged as the region’s top concern (30.3 per cent), followed closely by Beijing’s “strong-arm tactics” in the South China Sea and the Mekong (28 per cent).

Concerns over economic coercion through trade and tourism ranked third (22.1 per cent).

“The prominence of domestic interference suggests that anxieties are increasingly internal rather than purely geopolitical,” the report said.

Respondents in Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand and Singapore registered “particularly high concern” over influence operations, including through social media and perceived outreach to ethnic Chinese communities, it added.

“This points to heightened sensitivity around sovereignty, political autonomy and information integrity, especially in an era of digital penetration and polarised domestic politics.”

ASEAN-US RELATIONS

On relations with the US under a second Donald Trump presidency, the survey findings reveal “a more cautious and uncertain outlook” across ASEAN, the report said.

At the regional level, 37.7 per cent of respondents believe relations will remain the same, making this the predominant view, the report noted. A combined 32.8 per cent expect improvement, while 29.5 per cent foresee deterioration.

In contrast, last year’s survey found that 39.8 per cent of respondents expected relations to stay unchanged, 46 per cent foresaw improvement and 14.2 per cent anticipated deterioration.

“Compared to last year, optimism appears to have softened, with fewer respondents anticipating clear improvement and more a