Southeast Asia set to remain second-largest arms market
Southeast Asia set to remain second-largest arms market
LONDON (AFP): Southeast Asia is likely to remain the world's second biggest arms market as China continues to upgrade its military forces, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual report published Tuesday.
Beijing will require most of the next decade, and increasing expenditure, to bring its forces to the technological level of major western countries, the report said.
China appears to be concentrating on enhancing troop mobility to deal with border threats and internal security problems, it noted.
East Asian countries which have begun an ambitious modernization program accounted for more than a quarter (26.6 percent) of the world market in 1996, importing military equipment costing US$10.2 billion.
In four of these countries, imports totaled more than $1 billion: Japan ($2 billion), China ($1.5 billion), Taiwan ($1.3 billion), and South Korea ($1.1 billion).
In addition, Indonesia and Thailand ($700 million each), Singapore ($400 million) and Malaysia ($350 million) were also among the world's 11 largest arms importers.
In south Asia, military procurement was targeted largely at internal law enforcement, with defense spending a low priority. Thus in India, recent reports indicated that paramilitary forces currently under the control of the home ministry will return within five years to their original policing or reserve role, giving way to a dedicated counter-insurgency force of 50,000-60, 000 men under army control.
The arms spending frenzy in southeast Asia looks set to continue unless an economic recession should intervene, the IISS predicted.
China participates in some major multilateral security arrangements, but it does not at present have the resources to project a major conventional force beyond its territory. It appears instead to be giving priority to improving strategic forces as a credible deterrent.
China has an extensive range of arms development programs, but their slow development had provided opportunities for Russian exports. Thus China took delivery of a second batch of 24 Sukhoi SU-24 planes in 1996 and will take delivery of two 636-class Kilo submarines in 1997-98.
At the same time, China's arms-export policies "remain a source of concern in terms of both weapons-of-mass-destruction (WMD) proliferation and the supply of conventional and light weapons to belligerents," the IISS commented.
Meanwhile China, the last nuclear power to conduct a nuclear test (in May 1996), has made three significant gestures: it signed the nuclear test ban treaty in 1996, ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention, accepting for the first time the principle of allowing an inspection team on its territory, and placed troops on stand-by for UN peacekeeping operations.
However China's reaction to Japan's more active defense role is a cause for concern in the region, IISS reported.
Beijing issued strong warnings to Washington and Tokyo over Taiwan following the signing of a provisional agreement last year that strengthened U.S.-Japanese defense ties.
In the Korean peninsula, the North with around one million troops on active duty with outdated equipment and poor training amid harrowing stories of famine and suffering, continues to represent a "serious threat" to the south, IISS warned.
In Cambodia, the continuing decline of the Khmer Rouge as a fighting force does not necessarily signal an early end to violence in the country, while the civil war in Sri Lanka is now in its 14th year and in Afghanistan the hold on power of the Taliban remains precarious, it noted.