Southeast Asia set to remain second-largest arms market

Southeast Asia set to remain second-largest arms market

LONDON (AFP): Southeast Asia is likely to remain the world's
second biggest arms market as China continues to upgrade its
military forces, the International Institute for Strategic
Studies said in its annual report published Tuesday.

Beijing will require most of the next decade, and increasing
expenditure, to bring its forces to the technological level of
major western countries, the report said.

China appears to be concentrating on enhancing troop mobility
to deal with border threats and internal security problems, it
noted.

East Asian countries which have begun an ambitious
modernization program accounted for more than a quarter (26.6
percent) of the world market in 1996, importing military
equipment costing US$10.2 billion.

In four of these countries, imports totaled more than $1
billion: Japan ($2 billion), China ($1.5 billion), Taiwan ($1.3
billion), and South Korea ($1.1 billion).

In addition, Indonesia and Thailand ($700 million each),
Singapore ($400 million) and Malaysia ($350 million) were also
among the world's 11 largest arms importers.

In south Asia, military procurement was targeted largely at
internal law enforcement, with defense spending a low priority.
Thus in India, recent reports indicated that paramilitary forces
currently under the control of the home ministry will return
within five years to their original policing or reserve role,
giving way to a dedicated counter-insurgency force of 50,000-60,
000 men under army control.

The arms spending frenzy in southeast Asia looks set to
continue unless an economic recession should intervene, the IISS
predicted.

China participates in some major multilateral security
arrangements, but it does not at present have the resources to
project a major conventional force beyond its territory. It
appears instead to be giving priority to improving strategic
forces as a credible deterrent.

China has an extensive range of arms development programs, but
their slow development had provided opportunities for Russian
exports. Thus China took delivery of a second batch of 24 Sukhoi
SU-24 planes in 1996 and will take delivery of two 636-class Kilo
submarines in 1997-98.

At the same time, China's arms-export policies "remain a
source of concern in terms of both weapons-of-mass-destruction
(WMD) proliferation and the supply of conventional and light
weapons to belligerents," the IISS commented.

Meanwhile China, the last nuclear power to conduct a nuclear
test (in May 1996), has made three significant gestures: it
signed the nuclear test ban treaty in 1996, ratified the Chemical
Weapons Convention, accepting for the first time the principle of
allowing an inspection team on its territory, and placed troops
on stand-by for UN peacekeeping operations.

However China's reaction to Japan's more active defense role
is a cause for concern in the region, IISS reported.

Beijing issued strong warnings to Washington and Tokyo over
Taiwan following the signing of a provisional agreement last year
that strengthened U.S.-Japanese defense ties.

In the Korean peninsula, the North with around one million
troops on active duty with outdated equipment and poor training
amid harrowing stories of famine and suffering, continues to
represent a "serious threat" to the south, IISS warned.

In Cambodia, the continuing decline of the Khmer Rouge as a
fighting force does not necessarily signal an early end to
violence in the country, while the civil war in Sri Lanka is now
in its 14th year and in Afghanistan the hold on power of the
Taliban remains precarious, it noted.