Southeast Asia is still suspicious of Japan (2)
Southeast Asia is still suspicious of Japan (2)
This is the second of a two-part article examining Japan's
relations with Southeast Asia.
By Lam Peng Er
SINGAPORE: What are the factors that will have an impact on
Japan's relations with Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-
Pacific region in the 21st century? First, will the United States
have the commitment, capability and credibility to remain a key
player in the region?
Will the U.S.-Japan alliance be maintained? A Japan with an
autonomous defense posture unchecked by an ally would surely be
worrisome to the Southeast Asian countries.
Second, will a resurgent China exert its political, economic
and military weight and cast its shadow over the region? If China
succeeds in maintaining political stability and economic reforms
in the post-Deng Xiaoping era, it will become an economic
powerhouse in the 21st century. Beijing will then have more
resources to assert its influence in the region. If China
attempts to fill the strategic vacuum resulting from a U.S.
retrenchment in the region, will Japan be acceptable to Southeast
Asia as a counterweight to China?
The Southeast Asian perspective of Japan in the next century
will be influenced by the regional balance of power and the
behavior of the United States, China and Japan between themselves
and toward Southeast Asia.
Third, will multilateral approaches such as the Asia-pacific
Economic Cooperation forum and Asian Regional Forum (ARF) succeed
in balancing the interests of the regional states? Will Asia-
Pacific nations engage in the positive sum game of peaceful
economic relations or the zero-sum game of military competition?
Fourth, to what extent will the domestic constraints on a more
active Japanese foreign policy be eroded? Conceivably, Japanese
pacifism will be further weakened by generational change.
Moreover, if the Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ), the
traditional sentinel that opposes militarism and supports the
war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution, were to face
oblivion, a key political brake would be lost.
This is a strong possibility because the SDPJ is likely to be
hard hit by the new first-past-the-post electoral system
introduced as part of the political reform package.
Instead of the traditional conservative progressive political
cleavage personified by the Liberal Democratic Party and the
SDPJ, two conservative blocs may emerge in the long run. This
trend may lead to increasing domestic political pressure to
remake Japan into a "normal state", resulting in the jettisoning
of Article 9. This will send shock waves through the region.
Fifth, will ASEAN remain cohesive and present a united front
in its dealings with the great powers? Although ASEAN strives to
maintain solidarity among its members, there are also bilateral
territorial disputes between some of them. In the case of the
Spratlys, the claimants include China and some of the ASEAN
states. A divided ASEAN will surely exercise less clout in its
dealings with big powers, including Japan.
It is difficult to forecast Japan's relations toward Southeast
Asia in the 21st century. I suspect that this proud nation will
continue to carry its burden of history into the next century
unless the Japanese honestly confront their past. Japan's
aspirations to play a political leadership role in the region
will be constrained by emotional legacies of the Japanese
occupation of Southeast Asia, and the nationalistic pride of
Southeast Asian states that do not desire to be the followers of
any great powers. However, if Japan chooses to lead in market
liberalization measures, foreign aid programs and environmental
protection in the Asia-Pacific region, its role will be
appreciated by Southeast Asia.
Dr. Lam Peng Er, a former visiting scholar at Keio University,
is a lecturer at the department of political science, National
University of Singapore.
-- The Daily Yomiuri