Southeast Asia is still suspicious of Japan (2)
Southeast Asia is still suspicious of Japan (2)
This is the second of a two-part article examining Japan's relations with Southeast Asia.
By Lam Peng Er
SINGAPORE: What are the factors that will have an impact on Japan's relations with Southeast Asia and the broader Asia- Pacific region in the 21st century? First, will the United States have the commitment, capability and credibility to remain a key player in the region?
Will the U.S.-Japan alliance be maintained? A Japan with an autonomous defense posture unchecked by an ally would surely be worrisome to the Southeast Asian countries.
Second, will a resurgent China exert its political, economic and military weight and cast its shadow over the region? If China succeeds in maintaining political stability and economic reforms in the post-Deng Xiaoping era, it will become an economic powerhouse in the 21st century. Beijing will then have more resources to assert its influence in the region. If China attempts to fill the strategic vacuum resulting from a U.S. retrenchment in the region, will Japan be acceptable to Southeast Asia as a counterweight to China?
The Southeast Asian perspective of Japan in the next century will be influenced by the regional balance of power and the behavior of the United States, China and Japan between themselves and toward Southeast Asia.
Third, will multilateral approaches such as the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperation forum and Asian Regional Forum (ARF) succeed in balancing the interests of the regional states? Will Asia- Pacific nations engage in the positive sum game of peaceful economic relations or the zero-sum game of military competition?
Fourth, to what extent will the domestic constraints on a more active Japanese foreign policy be eroded? Conceivably, Japanese pacifism will be further weakened by generational change. Moreover, if the Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ), the traditional sentinel that opposes militarism and supports the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution, were to face oblivion, a key political brake would be lost.
This is a strong possibility because the SDPJ is likely to be hard hit by the new first-past-the-post electoral system introduced as part of the political reform package.
Instead of the traditional conservative progressive political cleavage personified by the Liberal Democratic Party and the SDPJ, two conservative blocs may emerge in the long run. This trend may lead to increasing domestic political pressure to remake Japan into a "normal state", resulting in the jettisoning of Article 9. This will send shock waves through the region.
Fifth, will ASEAN remain cohesive and present a united front in its dealings with the great powers? Although ASEAN strives to maintain solidarity among its members, there are also bilateral territorial disputes between some of them. In the case of the Spratlys, the claimants include China and some of the ASEAN states. A divided ASEAN will surely exercise less clout in its dealings with big powers, including Japan.
It is difficult to forecast Japan's relations toward Southeast Asia in the 21st century. I suspect that this proud nation will continue to carry its burden of history into the next century unless the Japanese honestly confront their past. Japan's aspirations to play a political leadership role in the region will be constrained by emotional legacies of the Japanese occupation of Southeast Asia, and the nationalistic pride of Southeast Asian states that do not desire to be the followers of any great powers. However, if Japan chooses to lead in market liberalization measures, foreign aid programs and environmental protection in the Asia-Pacific region, its role will be appreciated by Southeast Asia.
Dr. Lam Peng Er, a former visiting scholar at Keio University, is a lecturer at the department of political science, National University of Singapore.
-- The Daily Yomiuri