Southeast Asia dogged by problems of key members: DBS Bank
Southeast Asia dogged by problems of key members: DBS Bank
SINGAPORE (AFP): Corruption scandals dogging the leaders of
the Philippines and Thailand, and the inexperience of new
Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, have regional
financial markets on edge, Southeast Asia's largest bank said
Wednesday.
Bribery allegations against the husband of Philippine
President Gloria Arroyo, Jose Miguel, "has taken on added
significance" because the state ombudsman has formed a panel to
investigate her alleged involvement, DBS Bank said in a report.
"It should continue to keep the Philippine financial markets
on the edge if it threatens to result in another Estrada-type
scandal," the bank said.
Former Philippine president Joseph Estrada was toppled in a
popular uprising in January following a corruption scandal.
Estrada's fall catapulted then vice president Arroyo to power.
Jose Miguel Arroyo is alleged to have accepted 50 million
pesos (US$943,000) in bribes to convince the president to approve
two vetoed telecoms franchise bills. He has denied the
allegations.
DBS compared Arroyo's rise to power with that of Southeast
Asia's other woman president, Megawati, who was swept to office
following the ouster by parliament of Abdurrahman Wahid.
"Megawati honeymoon to end soon," DBS said. "Given the similar
paths to power by both Megawati and Arroyo, it would be difficult
to be optimistic for Indonesia for the medium term."
Both leaders, who are daughters of former presidents, are
haunted by supporters of their deposed predecessors. Both also
have businessmen husbands, DBS noted.
But the bank said Megawati faced bigger separatist problems
with more provinces crying out for independence.
Arroyo's government is holding peace talks with the main
Filipino Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation
Front, and is waging war on a small but notorious band of
kidnappers, the Abu Sayyaf.
While Arroyo boasts of an economics background and extensive
experience as a cabinet member, Megawati was relatively
inexperienced.
"This leaves much doubt if Megawati can fare any better, in an
environment that is more politically and economically more
challenging," the bank said.
Allegations that Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had
deliberately concealed assets in 1997 continue to hobble his
leadership, DBS Bank said.
Thailand's Constitutional Court is expected to hand down a
verdict either this month or next. A guilty verdict could lead to
Thaksin's removal from office.
"Even if Thaksin is able to remain a strong influence in the
background, it will not be the same as having a captain at the
steer," it said.
Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are key members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which also groups
Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.
ASEAN is losing out to stronger competition from China in
terms of foreign investments and exports.