Soeharto will retain power in 1998: Gus Dur
Soeharto will retain power in 1998: Gus Dur
YOGYAKARTA (JP): Abdurrahman Wahid, a shrewd political analyst
well-known for his controversial views, predicts that President
Soeharto will retain power in 1998.
Although debates are raging about the presidential succession,
Gus Dur -- as Abdurrahman Wahid is better known -- said he is
skeptical that the People's Consultative Assembly will elect a
new president in 1998.
"Personally, I doubt that there will be a succession, because
general elections are only two years away and Soeharto still
doesn't seem to have any competitor," he said during a seminar on
politics.
Gus Dur, who chairs the 30-million member Nahdlatul Ulama
Moslem organization, said everyone has the right to talk and
theorize about the future president, "but real politics in the
country is unpredictable."
President Soeharto, 73, is presently in his sixth five-year
term in office.
Gus Dur said that Indonesia has no clear mechanism on
presidential succession and the only guideline is the 1945
Constitution.
"If you only want to talk about replacing a president who is
indisposed or dead, that is already settled in the Article 7 of
the Constitution," he said.
However, he said, implementation of the article is open to
different interpretations and Indonesia has no experience in
openly discussing, let alone implementing, the issue.
The article states that the presidential term of office is
five years and he or she "can be re-elected". It does not
specify, for example, how many times the president can be
reappointed.
He cited that former United States president John F. Kennedy
was replaced by Vice President Lyndon Johnson shortly after
Kennedy died.
"Should we automatically replace the president in this way, or
should we opt for some other mechanism?" asked the leader of
Forum Democracy.
The issue of succession was brought up again earlier this week
when Chairman of the Supreme Advisory Council Sudomo said
President Soeharto wanted the future president and vice president
to be civilians.
Responding to questions on the reduction of House members from
the Armed Forces (ABRI) faction, Gus Dur said that it was
difficult to predict the political implications of the decrease
in representation.
He argued that discussing the number of ABRI's representatives
in the legislative body is less urgent than discussing how to
make the political system more transparent.
"The major task now," he added, "is how to smoothly manage the
democratization process and how to balance the executive,
legislative and judicial powers."
Gus Dur considered the executive branch of the bureaucracy
more dominant than the legislative, which affects the checks-and-
balances mechanism.
Within the political elite, there is fear that a balance
between the three powers would lead to "liberalism" and then on
to political chaos.
"I think this fear must be dispelled through discussion
forums," Gus Dur said. "Its a pity, though, that these very
forums are often restricted by the government."
On a separate occasion, Gen. (ret) Soemitro, a former chief of
the powerful internal security agency, questioned a proposal by
Gen. (ret) Abdul Haris Nasution that the government require all
able citizens to participate in military training.
Nasution helped conceptualize the military's dual function in
both defense and politics. He argues that military training would
help stop the debate over the military's dominant role in
politics. (har/rid/pwn)