Soeharto still has strong grip on state affairs

By Imanuddin

JAKARTA (JP): Amid complaints of irregularities and cheating, the National Election Committee delivered in June the final results of the May 29 general election, sealed and endorsed by the three contestants: the United Development Party (PPP), Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

It officiated an unprecedented domination by Golkar, thereby determining, more or less, the political direction of the country for the next five years. It also reconfirmed President Soeharto's strong grip on the political system, more than 30 years after he built it.

Winning 84,187,907 votes, Golkar bagged 325 of the 425 contested seats in the House of Representatives (DPR). This was the sixth victory in a row for Golkar under the New Order government since 1971. In the 1992 election it won 282 seats.

The rift-ridden Nationalist-Christian PDI, repeated its tradition of trailing in the last six elections, barely scrapping into the House with 11 seats.

But the Moslem-oriented PPP made big gains, securing 89 House seats -- a significant improvement from its 1992 total of 62 seats and exceeding its previous best performance in 1977 when it earned 79 seats.

The announcement of the results and the induction of new members of the DPR and the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), however, were not the end of the story. Some questions remained unanswered.

Golkar has been widely criticized of premature electioneering and even resorting to cheating while PPP's achievement was thought to have been influenced by the bickering that split PDI and which peaked in some ugly riots in June 1996.

The government might have chosen to recognize only Soerjadi, who toppled Megawati Soekarnoputri from her PDI leadership, but the quiet daughter of the late president Sukarno continued to battle it out.

Some observers claim Golkar began its premature electioneering years ago under the leadership of Harmoko, who until June was also minister of information.

Burdened with the expectation that he could increase Golkar's vote -- which fell to 68 percent in 1992 from 73 percent in 1987 -- Harmoko pledged that no day would pass without him trying to mobilize support. He covered thousands of kilometers each year to garner more support.

This fact contributed to the political tension, especially between Golkar and PPP supporters, months before the election campaign in April and May.

Some will remember the campaign as the most violent in the country's history, with the worst incident occurring on May 23 in Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan, where 123 people died in a building blaze.

Political analysts blamed the violence on political rivalry, youthful exuberance and dissatisfaction and frustration with the government during an outpouring of political passion allowed only once every five years.

"When campaigning begins, party supporters can only see it as a time to break free, violate all the rules and take revenge ... Elections are no longer seen as a chance to choose people's representatives because nothing has ever changed after an election," Loekman Soetrisno, a professor of sociology at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said.

It was also during the campaigning that a new "force" was born, a hybrid of Megawati supporters and those from PPP. Their catchword became "Mega-Bintang" -- Mega is a nickname for Megawati and bintang (star) is PPP's symbol.

The unlikely political alliance grew so quickly in the final days of the campaign that the government-backed Golkar seemed to feel threatened. The government lashed back, banning all expressions of the alliance.

Renomination

The election was important because it was expected to lead the country into a period where leadership succession could safely occur.

"People are uncertain whether Indonesia will have a new president or there will be a mere repetition of past election results," political observer Ramlan Surbakti of the Surabaya- based Airlangga University said.

Many people believe the presidential election next year will once again be a one-horse race as Soeharto has the estimated support of at least 850 of the 1,000 People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) members. The 850 are legislators from Golkar and their traditional allies from the regional representatives and Armed Forces (ABRI) factions.

There is one factor that should be taken into consideration, however, and that is whether his health may force Soeharto to eventually refuse renomination. No one really knows whether he will say yes or no.

The real battle will be in the vice presidential race, Ramlan said.

"The next vice president will play a significant role if the president is unable to continue his service before the end of his term," he said, adding that candidates from the Armed Forces will still be the strongest contenders for the race.

"I believe that the next vice president will be selected from among military officials," he said, stressing that a strong person was needed to handle the possibility of violence if the government fails to settle the ongoing economic crisis.

So far there have been 13 people considered vice presidential material and registered at the People's Consultative Assembly.

Six of those touted have a military background: incumbent Try Sutrisno; Minister of Defense Edi Sudradjat; Minister of Information R. Hartono; State Minister of National Development Planning Ginandjar Kartasasmita; Armed Forces chief Gen. Feisal Tanjung; and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Wiranto.

The civilian candidates are: House Speaker Harmoko; State Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie; Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X; human rights campaigner Baharuddin Lopa, President Soeharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana; Moslem leader Amien Rais; and PPP chairman Ismail Hasan Metareum.