Soeharto still has strong grip on state affairs

Soeharto still has strong grip on state affairs

By Imanuddin

JAKARTA (JP): Amid complaints of irregularities and cheating,
the National Election Committee delivered in June the final
results of the May 29 general election, sealed and endorsed by
the three contestants: the United Development Party (PPP), Golkar
and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).

It officiated an unprecedented domination by Golkar, thereby
determining, more or less, the political direction of the country
for the next five years. It also reconfirmed President Soeharto's
strong grip on the political system, more than 30 years after he
built it.

Winning 84,187,907 votes, Golkar bagged 325 of the 425
contested seats in the House of Representatives (DPR). This was
the sixth victory in a row for Golkar under the New Order
government since 1971. In the 1992 election it won 282 seats.

The rift-ridden Nationalist-Christian PDI, repeated its
tradition of trailing in the last six elections, barely scrapping
into the House with 11 seats.

But the Moslem-oriented PPP made big gains, securing 89 House
seats -- a significant improvement from its 1992 total of 62
seats and exceeding its previous best performance in 1977 when it
earned 79 seats.

The announcement of the results and the induction of new
members of the DPR and the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR),
however, were not the end of the story. Some questions remained
unanswered.

Golkar has been widely criticized of premature electioneering
and even resorting to cheating while PPP's achievement was
thought to have been influenced by the bickering that split PDI
and which peaked in some ugly riots in June 1996.

The government might have chosen to recognize only Soerjadi,
who toppled Megawati Soekarnoputri from her PDI leadership, but
the quiet daughter of the late president Sukarno continued to
battle it out.

Some observers claim Golkar began its premature electioneering
years ago under the leadership of Harmoko, who until June was
also minister of information.

Burdened with the expectation that he could increase Golkar's
vote -- which fell to 68 percent in 1992 from 73 percent in 1987
-- Harmoko pledged that no day would pass without him trying to
mobilize support. He covered thousands of kilometers each year to
garner more support.

This fact contributed to the political tension, especially
between Golkar and PPP supporters, months before the election
campaign in April and May.

Some will remember the campaign as the most violent in the
country's history, with the worst incident occurring on May 23 in
Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan, where 123 people died in a
building blaze.

Political analysts blamed the violence on political rivalry,
youthful exuberance and dissatisfaction and frustration with the
government during an outpouring of political passion allowed only
once every five years.

"When campaigning begins, party supporters can only see it as
a time to break free, violate all the rules and take revenge ...
Elections are no longer seen as a chance to choose people's
representatives because nothing has ever changed after an
election," Loekman Soetrisno, a professor of sociology at Gadjah
Mada University in Yogyakarta, said.

It was also during the campaigning that a new "force" was
born, a hybrid of Megawati supporters and those from PPP. Their
catchword became "Mega-Bintang" -- Mega is a nickname for
Megawati and bintang (star) is PPP's symbol.

The unlikely political alliance grew so quickly in the final
days of the campaign that the government-backed Golkar seemed to
feel threatened. The government lashed back, banning all
expressions of the alliance.

Renomination

The election was important because it was expected to lead the
country into a period where leadership succession could safely
occur.

"People are uncertain whether Indonesia will have a new
president or there will be a mere repetition of past election
results," political observer Ramlan Surbakti of the Surabaya-
based Airlangga University said.

Many people believe the presidential election next year will
once again be a one-horse race as Soeharto has the estimated
support of at least 850 of the 1,000 People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) members. The 850 are legislators from Golkar and
their traditional allies from the regional representatives and
Armed Forces (ABRI) factions.

There is one factor that should be taken into consideration,
however, and that is whether his health may force Soeharto to
eventually refuse renomination. No one really knows whether he
will say yes or no.

The real battle will be in the vice presidential race, Ramlan
said.

"The next vice president will play a significant role if the
president is unable to continue his service before the end of his
term," he said, adding that candidates from the Armed Forces will
still be the strongest contenders for the race.

"I believe that the next vice president will be selected from
among military officials," he said, stressing that a strong
person was needed to handle the possibility of violence if the
government fails to settle the ongoing economic crisis.

So far there have been 13 people considered vice presidential
material and registered at the People's Consultative Assembly.

Six of those touted have a military background: incumbent Try
Sutrisno; Minister of Defense Edi Sudradjat; Minister of
Information R. Hartono; State Minister of National Development
Planning Ginandjar Kartasasmita; Armed Forces chief Gen. Feisal
Tanjung; and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Wiranto.

The civilian candidates are: House Speaker Harmoko; State
Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie; Yogyakarta
Sultan Hamengkubuwono X; human rights campaigner Baharuddin Lopa,
President Soeharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana;
Moslem leader Amien Rais; and PPP chairman Ismail Hasan Metareum.