Soeharto should groom a successor, scholar says
Soeharto should groom a successor, scholar says
JAKARTA (JP): Noted political scholar Amir Santoso sparked a new controversy yesterday when he suggested that President Soeharto should appoint his successor to ensure that an orderly transfer of power takes place in 1998.
During a political discussion at the University of Indonesia, Amir cast doubts that Indonesia's political system would be able to survive an open competition in a presidential election.
Amir suggested that one of two scenarios would occur: The first would be that no candidate would appear, which would force the incumbent to run again. The second was total political chaos.
"My catchword is stability," said Amir, a staff lecturer at the School of Social and Political Sciences of the University.
He made his suggestions during a discussion of a book entitled The Problems and Prospects of Democracy in Indonesia by R. Eep Saefulloh Fatah, a student and assistant lecturer at the same school. The meeting also featured Cosmas Batubara, a former government minister and Gen. (ret) Sumitro.
Soeharto, now 72 years old, has indicated that the country must find a successor but has failed to show any preference. The president insists that his succession should be conducted constitutionally.
So far, two men have been mentioned as front runners. They are Gen. (ret.) Try Sutrisno, the current vice president, and B.J. Habibie, the state minister of research and technology.
Amir said he preferred the leadership transition which took place in Singapore in 1990 when Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew stood down and appointed Goh Chok Tong as his heir apparent, having groomed him throughout the previous years.
Amir felt that anybody who replaces Soeharto must undergo a preparatory term during which people would have a chance to make a judgment about the candidate.
"I prefer slow changes," he said, adding that radical changes might force Indonesia's development "back to square one."
Indonesia is a heterogeneous society and its political parties are not sophisticated enough to carry out an orderly succession through open competition, he said.
He predicted total mayhem if each of the three political groups -- Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) -- nominate different candidates for the presidency.
Mature
These three elements have all nominated Soeharto in all the presidential election since 1978.
Amir said a competitive election system is only appropriate for a country where the political community is mature.
When asked to speculate if the Armed Forces (ABRI) would stage a coup d'etat in 1998, Amir said the likelihood is small as long as the military stays united.
Succession is a natural necessity, but it shouldn't be done out of difference to political interests or feelings towards the system, he said.
"It should be done because the majority of the people do not want the leader anymore or because the leader dies," he said.
Amir said that he was aware of people's complaints that Soeharto was always elected by MPR in its sessions once in five years after the general election.
He said that this was simply because the two minority political parties never had the courage to challenge his rule.
"What happened there was that nobody showed any courage. I have no idea why they were so afraid," he said.
Amir explained that the frequency of succession will depend on the strength of the pro-democracy movement in the country.
He felt that Indonesia should change the political development pattern it adopted in the 1970s because it restricts democratic participation for the sake of economic development.
Amir said there was no shortcuts for democracy because no ideal democracy had ever been achieved.
"But we should keep on trying to give people the strength to communicate their interests," he said.(par)