Soeharto should groom a successor, scholar says
Soeharto should groom a successor, scholar says
JAKARTA (JP): Noted political scholar Amir Santoso sparked a
new controversy yesterday when he suggested that President
Soeharto should appoint his successor to ensure that an orderly
transfer of power takes place in 1998.
During a political discussion at the University of Indonesia,
Amir cast doubts that Indonesia's political system would be able
to survive an open competition in a presidential election.
Amir suggested that one of two scenarios would occur: The
first would be that no candidate would appear, which would force
the incumbent to run again. The second was total political chaos.
"My catchword is stability," said Amir, a staff lecturer at
the School of Social and Political Sciences of the University.
He made his suggestions during a discussion of a book entitled
The Problems and Prospects of Democracy in Indonesia by
R. Eep Saefulloh Fatah, a student and assistant lecturer at the
same school. The meeting also featured Cosmas Batubara, a former
government minister and Gen. (ret) Sumitro.
Soeharto, now 72 years old, has indicated that the country
must find a successor but has failed to show any preference. The
president insists that his succession should be conducted
constitutionally.
So far, two men have been mentioned as front runners. They are
Gen. (ret.) Try Sutrisno, the current vice president, and B.J.
Habibie, the state minister of research and technology.
Amir said he preferred the leadership transition which took
place in Singapore in 1990 when Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew stood
down and appointed Goh Chok Tong as his heir apparent, having
groomed him throughout the previous years.
Amir felt that anybody who replaces Soeharto must undergo a
preparatory term during which people would have a chance to make
a judgment about the candidate.
"I prefer slow changes," he said, adding that radical changes
might force Indonesia's development "back to square one."
Indonesia is a heterogeneous society and its political parties
are not sophisticated enough to carry out an orderly succession
through open competition, he said.
He predicted total mayhem if each of the three political
groups -- Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) -- nominate different
candidates for the presidency.
Mature
These three elements have all nominated Soeharto in all the
presidential election since 1978.
Amir said a competitive election system is only appropriate
for a country where the political community is mature.
When asked to speculate if the Armed Forces (ABRI) would stage
a coup d'etat in 1998, Amir said the likelihood is small as long
as the military stays united.
Succession is a natural necessity, but it shouldn't be done
out of difference to political interests or feelings towards the
system, he said.
"It should be done because the majority of the people do not
want the leader anymore or because the leader dies," he said.
Amir said that he was aware of people's complaints that
Soeharto was always elected by MPR in its sessions once in five
years after the general election.
He said that this was simply because the two minority
political parties never had the courage to challenge his rule.
"What happened there was that nobody showed any courage. I
have no idea why they were so afraid," he said.
Amir explained that the frequency of succession will depend on
the strength of the pro-democracy movement in the country.
He felt that Indonesia should change the political development
pattern it adopted in the 1970s because it restricts democratic
participation for the sake of economic development.
Amir said there was no shortcuts for democracy because no
ideal democracy had ever been achieved.
"But we should keep on trying to give people the strength to
communicate their interests," he said.(par)