SMRC Survey: Prabowo Would Lose Election If Held Today, Trails Dedi Mulyadi

Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) has released a new survey indicating that President Prabowo Subianto would not win a presidential election if it were held today. The survey, titled ‘Electability of Presidential Candidates’, shows Prabowo in second place with 14.5 percent support in a semi-open simulation. He trails West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi, who leads with 35 percent. ‘If the presidential election were held now and Prabowo ran, he likely would not be re-elected,’ said SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani on Wednesday. Irvani noted that Prabowo’s electability has declined over the past nine months, falling from 34.9 percent in a November 2026 survey to 14.5 percent in the July 2026 survey. Over the same period, Dedi Mulyadi’s support rose from 19.7 percent to 35 percent. In a head-to-head simulation between the two, Dedi Mulyadi’s lead extends to 59 percent, compared to Prabowo’s 28.3 percent. The survey’s population comprised Indonesian citizens with voting rights. A total of 749 respondents were randomly selected, with telephone interviews conducted for 83.8 percent and face-to-face interviews for the remaining 16.2 percent. The survey, conducted from 5 to 19 July 2026, has a margin of error of approximately 3.7 percent.